基于系统动力学理论的事故解释方法  

A method for interpreting work safety accident based on system dynamics theory

作　　者：胡志宏 曾嵘 刘祖德 HU Zhihong;ZENG Rong;LIU Zude(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences (Wuhan),Wuhan Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第10期50-55,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为剖析生产安全事故发生的原因,寻找安全问题的杠杆解,更好地指导事故处理和预防控制,运用文献研究法和案例分析法,基于本体论思想的元事件模型,提出将事故描述图谱和辅助说明表相结合的事故描述方法;在此基础上,基于系统动力学(SD)理论,提出"DRAC"事故解释方法,即分为解构(Deconstruction)、重构(Reconstruction)、分析(Analysis)、总结(Conclude)等4部分解释事故,最后选取案例对上述方法进行适用性和可操作性研究。结果表明:该方法的适用性良好,可操作性强。In order to analyze the causes of work safety accidents,find leverage solutions to safety problems and guide the handling,prevention and control of accidents better,a work safety accident interpretation method based on SD theory was worked out with the applying of literature research method and case analysis method.Based on the meta-event model of ontology,.an accident description method combining accident description atlas and auxiliary description table was proposed,and a "DRAC" accident interpretation method was proposed based on system dynamics theory which was divided into four parts including Deconstruction,Reconstruction,Analysis and Conclude to explain the accidents.The applicability and maneuverability of the above method were studied by selecting cases.The results show that the method has good manifestation on both parts.

关 键 词：生产安全事故 事故描述 元事件 事故解释 系统动力学(SD) 杠杆解 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]