人口集中、城市群对经济增长作用的实证分析——以中国十大城市群为例  

Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Concentration and Urban Agglomeration on Economic Growth

作　　者：李恒[1] LI Heng(Institute of Industrial Economy and Rural Development,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学产业经济与农村发展研究所,河南开封475001

出　　处：《河南大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第1期43-52,共10页Journal of Henan University(Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"社会资本与农村减贫的理论及证据研究"(16BJL111)阶段性成果;河南省教育厅哲学社科基础研究重大项目"新时代促进区域协调发展的政策创新与发展战略研究"(2019-JCZD-003)阶段性成果

摘　　要：新型城市化以人为核心,人口增长和经济增长都是解释城市产生和发展的重要因素。和传统城镇化相比,新型城镇化更强调人的就业,单一城市和城市群在吸引人口实现就业转变方面存在差异。通过对我国268个地级以上城市人口向城市集中的实证研究发现,地级市层面工业化速度大于城市化速度,省会级城市则是城市化速度大于工业化速度。这种人口集中的特征凸显了城市群经济效应。中国十大城市群2006-2015年的数据表明城市群经济联系对城市经济增长的作用显著。城市化与工业化发展越协调,对增长的正向作用越显著,这进一步证实了产业发展和就业增长是城市经济水平提升的动力。A new type of people-centered urbanization of which both population growth and economic growth are important factors can explain the emergence and development of cities.Compared with traditional urbanization,new type of peoplecentered urbanization emphasizes more on the employment of people.There are differences between single cities and urban agglomerations in attracting labor forces to achieve employment transformation.Using a meta-analysis of population shifting from rural to urban residency in 268 prefecture level and above cities,this paper finds that industrialization outpaces urbanization in prefecture level cities,whilst in provincial capitals the speed of industrialization lags behind urbanization.The feature of population concentration highlighted the economic effects of urban agglomerations.An empirical study on China's top ten urban agglomerations from 2006 to 2015 shows that economic connections within urban agglomerations contribute significantly to economic growth.Particularly,with the increase of the coordination level of urbanization and industrialization,urban agglomerations will achieve greater positive effects on economic growth.This finding further validates that industrial development and employment growth are key driving forces for urban economic improvement.

关 键 词：城市化 工业化 人口集中 城市群经济 区域 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]