“中等收入陷阱”的定量识别与跨越路径  

Quantitative Identification and Stepping-over Path of Middle Income Trap

作　　者：程文[1] 张建华[2] Cheng Wen;Zhang Jianhua(Business School,Hubei University,Wuhan 430052,China;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院,武汉430062 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第1期129-132,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJL015)

摘　　要：文章对1950—2010年世界119个经济体曾经历过的"增长塌陷"进行了定量识别,从统计角度证明了"中等收入陷阱"的客观存在。在此基础上,对现有的识别方法进行了评估和修正,并识别出了历史上曾经陷入"中等收入陷阱"的后发经济体及其陷入陷阱的持续时间,从而为中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"提供了路径指引和政策参考。This paper quantitatively identifies the"growth collapse"experienced by 119 countries in the world from 1950 to2010, and proves the objective existence of middle-income trap from a statistical perspective. On this basis, the paper evaluates and modifies the existing identification methods, and then identifies the countries(which have been caught in the middle-income trap) of the late-developed countries and their duration in the trap, thus providing a path guide and policy reference for China to step over the middle-income trap.

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 定量识别 跨越路径 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]