绿色证书交易机制下可再生能源发电定价研究——期权博弈模型及数值模拟  

Pricing Model of Renewable Energy under Tradable Green Certificate System——Option GamesModel and Numerical Simulation

作　　者：俞萍萍 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第11期38-41,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地——浙江财经大学政府管制与公共政策研究中心课题《中国可再生能源产业激励性管制政策研究》(课题编号14JDGZ01YB)成果

摘　　要：根据可再生能源“十三五”规划,我国已于2017年开始实施可再生能源绿色证书核发和自愿交易。国家能源局指出将加快建立可再生能源发电配额制度,考核办法和绿色电力证书强制约束交易。基于这一政策背景,本文侧重讨论配额制下绿色证书交易机制以及与政策相关的不确定性,构建两阶段可再生能源投资期权博弈模型,从企业投资决策的角度给出绿色证书交易机制下可再生能源发电定价机制,通过数值模拟,揭示在这一定价机制下发电企业的投资决策行为,为可再生能源配额制政策的制定和设计提出政策建议。As proposed in National Renewable Energy 13th Five-Year Plan,a voluntarygreen certificate trading market was started to operate in 2017.National Energy Bureau planed to formulate and implement Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)system to promote the efficiency of the green certificate trade.In view of this,the characteristics of electricity market and uncertainties under Tradable Green Certificate (TGC)system are discussed and a two-stage real options gamemodel is proposed in this paper.This model aims to formulate a pricing model of TGC under such investment decision process.Finally using the Monte Carlo simulation,the paper concludes that under the TGC quota requirement in turn increases the quest for renewable energy.The effects of the TGC system on renewable energy investment are argued and suggestions of the design and formulation of RPS are proposed.

关 键 词：可再生能源 配额制度 绿色证书交易 期权博弈 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]