棕榈油价格波动及影响研究  

Analysis of the price fluctuation and Influencing factor of palm oil

作　　者：程小天 胡冰川[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学商学院 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第11期67-70,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“城镇化背景下食品消费的演进路径研究”(71373284)资助

摘　　要：本文通过对2010年10月至2017年6月国际棕榈油价格、国内棕榈油价格、国内大豆价格和国内玉米价格简历时间序列模型,用协整检验分析了国内外油脂油料市场整合情况;通过构建VAR模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解分析了各植物油品种价格波动如何影响棕榈油价格波动。研究发现:长期来看,棕榈油价格呈现下降趋势;国内油脂油料市场存在协整关系,其他品种油脂油料价格波动会影响国内棕榈油价格波动。同时,国内外油脂油料市场存在协整关系,国际棕榈油价格波动会迅速传导至国内油脂油料市场。因此,随着我国进口规模的扩大,我国油脂油料市场对全球油脂油料市场的影响也将不断深入。This paper developed a time serious model based on the data icluding international prices of palm oil, domestic prices of palm oil, soybean and corn from October 2010 to June 2017, analysed the situation of market integration of both domestic and overseas markets of oil and oilseeds through Cointegration Test. We introduced a VAR model, used impulse response and variance decomposition to discover the relationship between the price fluctuation of other vegetable oil and the price fluctuation of palm oil. Ours results show that :In the long run, the price of palm oil declines with the growth of its output levels;The price fluctuation of other oils and fats would have influence on domestic price fluctuation of palm oil due to the integrated relationship ofdomestic market of oils and fats;The international price fluctuation of palm oil would be quickly transfered to the domestic market of oils and fats because of the integrated relationship of oils and fats at home and abroad;Therefore, with the expansion of China’s imports, China’s market of oils and fats may have further impact on the global market of oils and fats.

关 键 词：油脂油料 棕榈油市场 棕榈油价格 VAR模型 方差分解 

分 类 号：F416.82[经济管理—产业经济] F768.2