基于扩展普尔分析框架的中国货币政策中介目标选择  

The Choice of Intermediary Targets of China's Monetary Policy Based on the Extended Poole Analysis Framework

作　　者：杨云[1] 仲伟周[1] YANG Yun;ZHONG Wei-zhou(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710060,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《经济经纬》2019年第1期150-156,共7页Economic Survey

摘　　要：选取2008—2017年中国货币数据,在测算季度潜在产出、通胀、利率和通胀预期等指标波动值基础上,通过构建包括预期和总供给函数的普尔分析,比较了两种货币政策中介目标的损失函数,以期为货币政策中介目标选择提供一个分析视角。研究发现:2008—2017年数量型规则虽优于价格型规则,损失函数大小较为接近,但依据金融市场发展状况,以2013年为节点,2013年后价格型目标的优势明显上升,损失函数数值之比由2008—2012年的0. 87大幅上升至1. 467。综合上述分析,认为价格型中介目标成本优势日益明显,更适合当前的宏观经济运行实际,应积极推进货币政策中介目标由数量型向价格型转型。By adopting China’s monetary data from 2008 to 2015,this paper measures the fluctuation value of quarterly potential output,inflation,interest rate,inflation expectation and other indexes. Then by constructing a framework of Poole analysis that encompasses functions of expectation and total supply,it compares the loss functions in the intermediate targets of two monetary policies in the hope of providing an analytical perspective for the choice of intermediate targets of monetary policy. The analysis finds that overall,quantity-based rules were superior to price-based rules between 2008 to 2017 with loss functions close to each other in values. However,based on the development of financial market,the year 2013 became a time node in that the superiority of price-based rules started to rise significantly after that and the ratio of loss function values rose to 1. 467 from a previous 0. 87 in the period of 2008-2012. Based on these,this paper holds that the cost advantage of price-based intermediate targets is gaining prominence and is more suitable to the present macroeconomic operation,which shows that the intermediate target of monetary policy should transform from quantity-based towards price-based.

关 键 词：普尔规则 货币政策 中介目标 政策建议 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]