躁进与谨慎之间:再论特朗普政府对台政策  

Between Recklessness and Prudence:the Trump Administration's Taiwan Policy Revisited

作　　者：郭拥军[1] Guo Yongjun(Center for Taiwan Studies,China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院涉台中心

出　　处：《台海研究》2018年第4期63-73,42,共12页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：美国《国家安全战略报告》出炉后,特朗普政府的对台政策进入新阶段。美国的相关立法、表态、作为既有躁进的一面,又有谨慎的一面。这一特征基于中美关系正经历的巨大变化,与经贸、朝核等议题高度关联,也与美国政府内部决策体系密切相关。特朗普政府未来的对台政策仍将在躁进与谨慎的区间内运行,出现极端恶性事件和淡化台湾议题的可能性都存在。The Trump administration's Taiwan policy has entered a new stage since the publication of the National Security Strategy of the United States in December 2017.To date,the U.S.official stance,behavior and related legislation have indicated a mixture of recklessness and prudence,due in large part to the ongoing fundamental changes in Sino-U.S.relations,to the current dynamics of trade disputes and the North Korean nuclear issue,and to the internal politics of the U.S.government.In the future,the Trump administration's Taiwan policy may continue oscillating between recklessness and prudence.As a result,it is possible to witness either escalating incidents or the Taiwan Question downplayed.

关 键 词：特朗普政府 台湾 中美关系 美台关系 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D827[政治法律—外交学]