2003 - 2017年内蒙古包头市人间布鲁菌病流行病学特征分析与短期发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and short-term epidemiological trend prediction of human brucellosis in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, 2003- 2017

作　　者：金艳辉[1] 徐玉萍[1] 张恒[1] 王平[2] Jin Yanhui;Xu Yuping;Zhang Heng;Wang Ping(Epidemic Disease Section,Baotou City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baotou 014030,China;General Office,Baotou City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baotou 014030,China)

机构地区：[1]包头市疾病预防控制中心流行病科,014030 [2]包头市疾病预防控制中心办公室,014030

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2019年第1期25-30,共6页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

摘　　要：目的 分析2003 - 2017年内蒙古包头市人间布鲁菌病(简称布病)的流行病学特征,短期预测2018 - 2020年布病的发病趋势,为布病预警和科学防治提供依据。 方法 包头市2003 - 2017年人间布病疫情资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病监测信息系统,人口资料来源于包头市统计年鉴。采用描述性流行病学方法,分析布病的流行概况、时间分布、地区分布、人群分布。根据2003 - 2017年布病月发病数,运用R语言建立自回归滑动平均混合(ARIMA)模型,通过ARIMA模型对2018 - 2020年布病的发病趋势进行预测。 结果 2003 - 2017年包头市累计报告人间布病5 180例。其中,2016年354例、2017年357例。发病年龄集中在35 - 64岁(4 046例);高发地区为牧区(2 218例)和农村地区(1 975例);职业以农民(3 930例)和牧民(552例)为主;发病高峰为每年的4 - 7月。布病发病预测模型为ARIMA(2,1,2)×(1,0,1)12,模型预测的平均绝对尺度误差为0.585。用构建的ARIMA模型预测2018 - 2020年包头市人间布病发病数分别为349、331、324例。 结论 包头市人间布病发病存在季节、地区、人群分布特征。与2016、2017年相比,2018 - 2020年布病发病较平稳,但不排除高发的可能。应密切关注布病疫情走势,根据流行病学特征采取综合防治措施,有效控制布病。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Baotou City, Inner Mongolia in 2003 - 2017, conduct short-term forecasting of incidence of brucellosis in 2018 - 2020, and provide evidence for early warning and scientific prevention of brucellosis. Methods The epidemic data of human brucellosis in Baotou City from 2003 to 2017 came from the Infectious Disease Monitoring Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the demographic data came from the statistical yearbook of Baotou City. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence, time distribution, regional distribution, and population distribution of brucellosis. According to the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in 2003 - 2017, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established using R language, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Baotou City in 2018 - 2020. Results From 2003 to 2017, there were 5 180 cases of human brucellosis in Baotou City, among them, 354 cases in 2016 and 357 cases in 2017. The age of onset was concentrated in 35 - 64 years old (4 046 cases);the high-incidence areas were pastoral areas (2 218 cases) and rural areas (1 975 cases);the occupational distribution was dominated by farmers (3 930 cases) and herders (552 cases);the peak incidence was from April to July every year. The prediction model of human brucellosis onset in Baotou City was ARIMA (2, 1, 2) × (1, 0, 1)12, and the average absolute scale error predicted by the model was 0.585. The constructed ARIMA model predicted that the annual incidence of human brucellosis in Baotou City will be 349, 331, and 324 cases in 2018 - 2020. Conclusions There are seasonal, regional and population distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Baotou City. Compared with those of 2016 and 2017, the incidences of human brucellosis in Baotou City are relatively stable in 2018 - 2020, but the possibility of high incidence is not ruled o

关 键 词：布鲁杆菌病 疾病流行 预报 预测 

分 类 号：R516.7[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]