全球油气开发特征与启示  

Characteristics and enlightenments of global oil and gas development

作　　者：常毓文[1] 王作乾[1] 刘保磊 蒋伟娜[1] 韦青[1] 陈希 CHANG Yuwen;WANG Zuoqian;LIU Baolei;JIANG Weina;WEI Qing;CHEN Xi(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development;Yangtze University)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [2]长江大学

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2018年第12期58-66,共9页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：国家重大专项"大型油气田及煤层气开发项目"<美洲地区超重油与油砂有效开发关键技术>(2016ZX05031)以及<超重油市场分析与价格预测研究任务>(2016ZX05031-004-001-002);<美洲地区超重油及油砂一体化经济评价与经营策略研究>(2016ZX05031-004)研究成果

摘　　要：2017年,全球油气开发特征包括:全球油气上游投资增长,深水、LNG和非常规等领域是国际石油公司的投资重点;油气开发成本降低,油气平均操作成本为6.9美元/当量桶,开发效益明显提升;天然气产量约为3.7万亿立方米,比上年增长4%;海域油气产量当量达到22.24亿吨,海域油气开发稳步提升;非常规油气产量上升至12.6亿吨当量,非常规油气发展呈差异化特征;技术创新成为提高油气开发效果的核心竞争力;资源国政策调整频繁,投资热点有所扩展;国际石油公司引领作用明显,盈利能力和抗风险能力较强。全球油气待发现资源量位于历史高位,油气产量持续稳定增长,三大推动力为领域接替、技术进步及油气价格。2018年后,全球油气产量将逐年增长,2035年达到95亿吨当量,油气产量主要仍由中东、中亚-俄罗斯和美洲贡献。非常规油气和海域油气将在全球油气产量构成中起到越来越重要的作用。中国应构建以能源支点国家为核心的油气供应格局,推动能源利用向低碳清洁方向发展;借助"一带一路"倡议,开启全球油气合作新时代。中国的石油公司要认清国际油价影响因素,把握全球油气财税调整的周期性,提升公司的效益水平。In 2017,global oil and gas development features included global upstream investment in oil and gas increased,deep water,LNG,and unconventional oil and gas were the investment priorities of international oil companies.Global oil and gas development costs reduced with 6.9$/bbl of the average operating cost,and the development benefits significantly improved.Global natural gas production was about 3.7 trillion cubic meters,up 4% year-on-year.The offshore oil and gas production equivalent reached 2.224 billion tons,and the development of offshore oil and gas steadily improved.Global unconventional oil and gas production equivalents rose to 1.26 billion tons,and the development of unconventional oil and gas showed different characteristics.Technological innovation became the core competitiveness to improve the effect of oil and gas development.Countries with resources adjusted their policy frequently and investment hotpots expended.The leading position of international oil companies was obvious with strong profitability and risk resistance.The amount of global oil and gas resources to be discovered are at a historical high,and the global oil and gas production continues to grow steadily.The three driving forces are field replacement,technological progress and oil and gas prices.Global oil and gas equivalent production will increase year by year after 2018 and reach 9.5 billion tons in 2035.Major global oil and gas production is still from the Middle East,Central AsiaRussia and the Americas.Unconventional oil and gas and offshore oil and gas,as the main development direction of oil and gas in the future,will play an increasingly important role in the composition of global oil and gas production.China should construct an oil and gas supply pattern with energy fulcrum countries as the core and promote the development of energy utilization toward low carbon and clean direction.At the same time,with the help of the Belt and Road Initiative,China should open a new era of global oil and gas cooperation.Chinese oil companies

关 键 词：油气开发 产量 油价 非常规油气 投资 财税政策 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]