MJO背景下云南省3次台风强对流天气对比分析  

Comparison and analysis of the strong convective weather during three typhoons under the influence of MJO in Yunnan

作　　者：冯德花 李华宏[2] 牛法宝[2] 王郦 张万诚[3] 王曼[3] FENG De-hua;LI Hua-hong;NIU Fa-bao;WANG Li;ZHANG Wan-cheng;WANG Man(Wenshan Meteorological Bureau of Yunnan Province,Wenshan 663300,China;Yunnan Provincial Metrological Bureau,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Research Institute of Meteorology,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省文山州气象局,云南文山663000 [2]云南省气象局,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第1期105-115,共11页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41765003;41565004;41805037);云南省科技厅科技惠民项目(2016RA096);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-068)

摘　　要：应用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料及MJO等资料对台风韦森特、威马逊和天鸽影响下云南省出现的强对流天气过程进行对比分析.研究表明:台风登陆前后但尚未进入影响云南的关键区之前,强对流天气因台风登陆位置和强度、MJO位相、MJO强弱、前期地面热力条件等不同而不同.台风在西行过程中,当MJO位于第2～6位相且表现为强MJO时(威马逊和天鸽),有利于云南区域强对流天气的发生发展;台风天鸽MJO位于第2位相(干窗口),其爆发性增强配合前期较有利的地面热量等不稳定条件更有利于触发云南强对流天气;MJO位于第4～6位相(湿窗口)时云南降水更突出.This paper aims to analyze strong convective weather process under the typhoon Vicente, Rammasun and Hato in Yunnan Province, through the conventional observation data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) 1° ×1° reanalysis data and Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO). Results indicated that when the typhoon was about to come but had not yet entered key influence areas of Yunnan, the strong convective weather varied depending on the typhoon landing location, typhoon intensity, MJO phase, MJO strength, and the thermal conditions in early ground.In the westbound process of typhoon, when the MJO is in the 2-6 phases and behaves as strong MJO(in the cases of Rammasun and Hato), it will be beneficial to the formation of strong convection weather in Yunnan region.For the typhoon Hato,the MJO was in the 2 phase(dry window) and had an explosive enhancement, further combing with the high thermal condition in early ground, all the unstable conditions were more favorable to trigger the strong convective weather in Yunnan. Otherwise, when MJO was in the 4-6 phases(wet window), the precipitation would be more prominent in Yunnan.

关 键 词：热带季节内振荡 台风 环流背景 强对流天气 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434