欧洲负利率政策实施效果评估及展望——基于合成控制法的研究  

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of European Negative Interest Rate Policy and Its Outlook: A Study Based on the Synthetic Control Method

作　　者：陆超[1] 孙雅静 杜佳[1] LU Chao;SUN Ya-jing;DU Jia(Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《当代财经》2019年第1期60-72,共13页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"负利率理论研究"(17BJL034)

摘　　要：社会各界对负利率政策的有效性自其推出以来就存在着较大分歧。基于2008—2016年欧元区与33个控制组国家或地区的年度经济数据,运用合成控制法从通货膨胀和经济增长两个角度对欧元区负利率政策的实施效果进行评估;结果发现,欧元区的负利率政策并没有显著提升通货膨胀和经济增长。这意味着欧元区的负利率政策促进经济增长的效果十分有限,货币当局不能仅依赖于负利率这种非常规手段,还应配合使用其他货币政策操作工具并采取相应的财政政策。Since the negative interest rate policy came into being, its effectiveness has attracted quite different opinions from all sectors of society. Based on the annual economic data of 33 control group countries or regions in the Euro area from 2008 to 2016, this paper applies the synthetic control method to evaluate the implementation effect of the negative interest rate policy in the Euro area from the two perspectives of inflation and economic growth. The results show that the NIRP in the Euro area has not significantly improved inflation and economic growth. It suggests that the effects of NIRP in the Euro area in promoting economic growth is very limited;the monetary authorities should not rely on this kind of non-conventional means of negative interest rate only, but also should take full advantage of other operational tools of monetary policy and adopt appropriate fiscal policies.

关 键 词：欧元区 负利率政策 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]