基于瓦斯地质特征的突出预警模型研究  

Study on outburst early warning model based on gas geological features

作　　者：覃木广[1,2] 赵旭生 张庆华[1,2] 岳俊 邹云龙[1,2] QIN Muguang;ZHAO Xusheng;ZHANG Qinghua;YUE Jun;ZOU Yunlong(State Key Lab of Gas Disaster Monitoring and Emergency Technology,Chongqing 400037,China;Chongqing Research Institute,China Coal Technology and Engineering Group,Chongqing 400037,China)

机构地区：[1]瓦斯灾害监控与应急技术国家重点实验室,重庆400037 [2]中煤科工集团重庆研究院有限公司,重庆400037

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2018年第12期138-144,共7页Coal Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0801404);重庆市"科技创新领军人才支持计划"资助项目(CSTCKJCXLJRC14)

摘　　要：为了准确预测工作面煤与瓦斯突出危险性,综合运用瓦斯地质理论、煤矿灾害预警理论、计算机信息技术以及安全系统工程分析方法,从决定采掘工作面突出危险性的瓦斯地质环境出发,建立了反映瓦斯地质特征的突出风险判识预警指标体系,包括地质构造特征指标、煤层参数指标、瓦斯类指标。运用多指标逐级判识和极值确定原则,构建了突出风险判识预警模型,建立了基于瓦斯地质特征的煤与瓦斯突出预警系统。通过现场应用及效果考察,预警准确率为99.3%,预警效果显著。结果表明,所建立的预警模型能客观反映工作面实际所处的突出危险状况,灵活且实用性强。In order to accurately reflect the danger of coal and gas outburst in the coal mining face and gateway driving face,a gas geological theory,mine disaster early warning theory,computer information technology and safety system engineering analysis method were comprehensively applied. From the gas geological environment of the outburst danger in the mining and driving faces,an identification and early warning index system of the outburst risk was established to reflect the gas geological features and the index system would include the index of the geological structure features,seam parameter index and gas type index. A stepwise identification and the extremum determined principle of the multi index were applied to construct the risk identification and early warning model of the outburst and to establish the early warning system of the coal and gas outburst based on the gas geological features. With the site application and effect investigation,the accuracy of the early warning was 99.3% and the early warning effect was obvious. The results showed that the early warning system established could objectively reflect the actual outburst danger of the face and could have the flexibility and high practicality.

关 键 词：瓦斯地质 煤与瓦斯突出 风险判识 预警模型 

分 类 号：TD711[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]