虚拟经济与货币供给的交互影响——基于货币“脱实向虚”与经济“虚实背离”的视角  

The Interactive Influence between the Virtual Economy and Money Supply: Based on the Perspectives of Monetary “Diversion from the Real Economy toward the Virtual Economy” and “Real and Virtual Economic Divergence”

作　　者：李世美 沈丽[2] Li Shimei;Shen Li(School of Management Science and Engineering,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning,Guangxi 530003,China;College of Economics,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha,Hunan 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院管理科学与工程学院,广西南宁530003 [2]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2018年第6期10-21,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目(13YBA173)

摘　　要：随着经济虚拟化程度不断提高,传统的货币理论已不能对超额货币增长做出合理解释。构建虚拟经济和货币供给交互影响作用机制的整体框架,并通过数理分析及向量自回归模型来推导、检验货币"脱实向虚"与经济"虚实分离"的关系。研究表明,货币"脱实向虚"会加剧经济"虚实背离",经济"虚实背离"又反过来强化货币"脱实向虚";货币"脱实向虚"对经济"虚实背离"的作用力度大于其反向作用力度;利率对经济"虚实背离"的正向影响大于对货币"脱实向虚"的负向影响。要有效改善经济的"虚实背离",需着力控制货币的"脱实向虚",分别对虚拟经济部门和实体经济采取有差别的利率政策,从而实现货币供给与经济发展的宏观均衡。With increasing economic virtualization,the traditional monetary theory can no longer adequately explain excessive monetary growth.This study constructs a comprehensive framework from the interaction mechanisms of the virtual economy and money supply and uses mathematical analysis and vector autoregression models to derive and test the relationship between "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" and "real and virtual economic divergence." The research shows that monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" exacerbates "real and virtual economic divergence." Furthermore,"real and virtual economic divergence" strengthens monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The degree of influence of monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than the influence of "real and virtual economic divergence" on monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The positive effect of interest rates on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than their negative influence on "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." In order to effectively improve the problem of "real and virtual economic divergence," it is necessary to control monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy," and to adopt different interest policies to address virtual and real economic sectors,thereby achieving macroeconomic equilibrium in the money supply and economic development.

关 键 词：虚拟经济 实体经济 脱实向虚 虚实背离 

分 类 号：F822.11[经济管理—财政学]