中国省际新型城镇化发展测度  

Measurement of Inter-provincial New Urbanization Development in China

作　　者：李政通[1,2,3] 姚成胜 邹圆[2,3] 龚圆 Li Zhengtong;Yao Chengsheng;Zou Yuan;Goong Yuan(Center of Central China Economic and social Development Research,Nanchang 330047;School of Economies and Management,Nanehang 330031,China;Econometric Research Institution,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,南昌330047 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031 [3]南昌大学计量经济研究会,南昌330031

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第2期95-100,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(2015AZD070);第57批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2015M571984);南昌大学研究生创新资助项目(CX2015081)

摘　　要：文章首先对序关系分析法进行改进,运用融合熵值法构建一种政策体现式的综合评价法,并将其运用于我国31省(市、区)2010—2014年新型城镇化发展水平变化的综合评价当中。研究认为:相对于熵值法而言,政策体现式综合评价法不仅能够体现评价对象的政策导向变化,而且显著提高了综合评价的全面性、可靠性、系统性和适用性;总体上看,我国新型城镇化的整体发展水平不高,2010—2014年整体以每年0.021个单位的速度增长。由于传统熵值法突出了城镇经济发展以及城镇人口和土地扩张,但弱化了城镇生活和城镇生态建设的内容,因而西北和西南等地区新型城镇化的发展速度被明显低估,而广大东部沿海则被明显高估。This paper firstly improves the rank correlation analysis method,and then uses entropy fusion method to construct a policy-embodied comprehensive evaluation method(PECEM),which is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of the changes in the development level of new-type urbanization in 31 provinces(cities and districts) from 2010 to 2014.The study results show that compared with the entropy method,the PECEM can not only reflect the change of policy orientation of the evaluated object,but also significantly improve the comprehensiveness,reliability,systematicness and applicability of evaluation.From a general view,the overall development level of new-type urbanization in China is not high,with the overall annual growth rate of 0.021 units from 2010 to 2014.The traditional entropy value method highlights urban economic development,urban population and land expansion,and weakens the content of urban life and urban ecological construction.Consequently,the development speed of new-type urbanization in northwest and southwest China is obviously underestimated,while the vast east coast is obviously overestimated.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 政策体现式综合评价法 序关系分析法 熵值法 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]