基于云模型可能性测度的引水灌溉工程调度风险评估  

Risk Evaluation of Irrigation Water Transfer Project Dispatching Based on Cloud Model and Possibility Measures

作　　者：陈海涛 全磊[2] 王文川 陈晓楠[3] 段春青 CHEN Hai-tao;QUAN Lei;WANG Wen-chuan;CHEN Xiao-nan;DUAN Chun-qing(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China;Henan Mechanical and Electrical Vocational College,Zhengzhou 451191,China;Administration of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Water Affairs Centre for Suburbs,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,郑州450045 [2]河南机电职业学院电气工程学院,郑州451191 [3]南水北调中线干线工程建设管理局,北京100038 [4]北京市郊区水务事务中心,北京100195

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2019年第1期112-117,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：河南省高校科技创新团队项目(181RTSTHN009)

摘　　要：输水调度是引水灌溉工程最为核心和关键业务,为确保工程安全平稳运行,对调度风险进行深入研究和系统分析是十分必要的。总结分析影响引水工程调度安全众多因素,将调度风险归纳为调度制度风险、调度人员风险、调度技术风险、调度协调风险4方面,细化各类风险因子,建立了调度风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,提出了基于云模型可能性测度风险评估方法,利用正态分布云模型量化风险因子的重要程度和效用值,通过模糊积分计算综合风险程度。实例表明,建立的引水灌溉工程调度风险评价指标体系和评估方法,能够较全面、合理反映调度运行安全影响因素,综合考虑了风险评估中的模糊性和随机性,操作性强,为风险评估研究提供了一种新思路。There are many complex operating conditions and multiple sources of water dispatch risk in long distance water transfer project.To ensure the safety of water dispatch,it is significant to take risk evaluation for long distance water transfer project.This paper summarizes the main risks that water dispatch is facing based on the actual situation of water dispatch,including dispatch institution risk,dispatch personnel risk,dispatch technical risk and dispatch coordinate risk.Various types of risk source is in-depth analyzed and the new risk evaluation method is proposed based on cloud model and possibility measures theory.The new evaluation model can not only show the fuzzy feature of grade,but also indicate random attribute of the degree by hyper entropy.The model is applied into risk assessment of the water dispatching and the results show that the model has strong adaptability,flexibility and high fitting accuracy.

关 键 词：长距离输水调度 云模型 可能性测度 风险评估 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV68[农业科学—农业工程]