基于Nested Logit的电动汽车分时租赁选择行为分析  

Analysis of Choices of Electric Car Sharing Based on Nested Logit Model

作　　者：刘向 董德存[1] 王宁[2] 张文剑 LIU Xiang;DONG Decun;WANG Ning;ZHANG Wenjian(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;College of Automotive Studies,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092 [2]同济大学汽车学院,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第1期47-55,共9页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金(kx0170020172681);上海市科技发展基金软科学研究重点项目(18692109400);同济大学智库研究专项(22120180208)

摘　　要：基于用户出行选择调查问卷的样本数据,应用Nested Logit离散选择模型进行回归分析,探究影响用户出行选择的因素,并计算出各种出行方式的分担率及其敏感度。结果表明:使用成本、站点距离、出行里程、驾龄、用户拥有私家车情况以及年龄等因素对用户是否选择电动汽车分时租赁有显著影响;当前电动汽车分时租赁在出行领域的显示性编好(revealed preference,RP)调查分担率为2.36%,使用成本对其敏感度为8.6%,站点距离对其敏感度为43.7%;陈术性编好(stated preference,SP)调查分担率为3.30%,使用成本对其敏感度为8.9%,站点距离对其敏感度为21.1%。The Nested Logit Model was used to analyze the questionnaire investigation based on users’ travel modes choices.The factors influencing on users’ travel modes choices were researched.Users’ selection probability and sensitivity of travel modes were computed.The results show that cost,station distance,trip distance,driving-age,ownership of private cars and users’ age make a difference on selection probability of electric car sharing.Selection probability of electric car sharing based on RP(revealed preference)data is 2.36% while based on SP(stated preference)data is 3.30%.If cost of electric car sharing increase 1 yuan/kilometer,based on RP data selection probability of electric car sharing will decrease by8.6% while based on SP data decrease by 8.9%.If station distance of electric car sharing increase 1 kilometer,based on RP data selection probability of electric car sharing will decrease by43.7% while based on SP data decrease by 21.1%.

关 键 词：电动汽车分时租赁 出行选择行为 Nested LOGIT模型 显示性偏好 陈述性偏好 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]