中国与东盟高新技术产品贸易动态波动研究——基于修正的CMS模型的因素测算  

Research on Dynamic Fluctuation of High-Tech Products Trade between China and ASEAN——Factors Calculation Based on Revised CMS Model

作　　者：樊兢[1] FAN Jing(School of Economics and Trade,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2019年第1期120-127,共8页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"北部湾经济区中小企业国际化导向与企业绩效的关系研究:基于社会网络的视角(71362022)";广西应用经济学一流学科(培育)开放性课题"基于修正CMS模型的中国-东盟高新技术产品贸易动态实证研究"(2018YB12)

摘　　要：本文以2001～2016年中国与东盟高新技术产品贸易数据为基础,运用修正的恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对高新技术产品贸易波动因素进行分解和测算。结果显示:中国对东盟高新技术产品出口波动最主要的因素是价格竞争力效应,市场需求效应、出口商品结构效应偏弱,但近年来价格竞争力效应有所下降;相比之下,东盟对中国高新技术产品出口波动最主要的因素是市场需求效应,出口商品结构效应和价格竞争力效应都偏弱,近年来市场需求效应有上升趋势。Baseon the high-tech products trade data between China and ASEAN,this paper uses the revised Constant Market Share Model(CMS) to decompose and calculate its influential factors. The empirical study results demonstrate as follows: the price competitiveness effect which gradually decreased is the primary factor of China’s export to ASEAN about high-tech products, followed by the market demand effect, but the export structural effect is weak;by contrast, the market demand effect which was on the uptrend is the dominant factor of ASEAN’s export to China about high-tech products, but the export structural effect and the price competitiveness effect are both weak.

关 键 词：中国与东盟 修正的CMS模型 高新技术产品 动态波动 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]