有限理性、收入差距与房地产价格泡沫研究  

A Study of Limited Rationality,Income Gap and House Price Bubble

作　　者：李春风 卫国 刘建江[3] LI Chun-feng;WEI guo;LIU Jian-jiang(School of Business,Nanjing University Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Department of Mathematics & Computer Science,University of North Carolina at Pembroke,Pembroke North Carolina 28372,U.S.A;School of Economics and Management,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学商学院,江苏南京210044 [2]北卡罗莱纳大学彭布罗克分校数学与计算机学院,北卡罗来纳州彭布罗克28372 [3]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2019年第1期16-28,共13页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15CJL017)

摘　　要：基于行为经济学视角理论发现,居民有限理性提高投资者的住房投资偏好,加剧房地产价格泡沫;住房不同属性的凸显,引致收入差距影响房地产价格泡沫存在门槛效应。并构建动态面板门槛数据模型,采用Kremer等(2013)提出的动态面板阈值方法进一步验证。结果显示,我国房地产价格泡沫存在动量效应,不存在反转效应,非理性泡沫理论和噪声交易理论解释更加合理,理性泡沫理论解释力度不够;收入差距是房地产价格泡沫的缓冲器,对房地产价格泡沫产生显著门槛效应,低于门槛值时,影响为抑制作用,高于门槛值时,影响转为促进作用。结合实证研究与现实境况,要协调房地产市场平稳健康发展,不仅要扭转居民非理性的住房投资偏好,还应着力合理控制收入差距水平。Based on the theory of behavioral economics,this study found that:residents’ limited rationality increases investors’ housing investment preference and aggravates the house price bubble;the difference of housing attributes leads to the income gap,which further leads to the threshold effect of real estate price bubble.We built a dynamic threshold panel data model and used the dynamic panel threshold method that put forward by Kremer et al.(2013)for further verification.The results showed that:there is momentum effect existing in China’s house price bubble and there is no reversal effect.Irrational bubble theory and the noise trading theory are more reasonable for explanation,and rational bubble theory is not strong for explanation;Income gap is the buffer of real estate price bubble,which has significant threshold effect on real estate price bubble.When it is below the threshold,the effect is inhibitory,and when it is above the threshold,the effect becomes stimulative.In order to coordinate the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,we should not only reverse the irrational housing investment preference of residents,but also control the income gap reasonably.

关 键 词：有限理性 收入差距 住房投资偏好 房地产价格泡沫 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]