基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的湖北省城市生活垃圾清运量预测  

Application of Dynamic GM(1,1) Model in Predicting the Collected Amount of Municipal Solid Waste in Hubei Province

作　　者：熊华平[1] 李鹏辉[1] XIONG Hua-ping;LI Peng-hui(School of Hengda Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430065,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学恒大管理学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第1期9-14,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：湖北省科技支撑计划软科学类项目(2014BDF074);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(17D011);<基于防范二次污染的湖北省垃圾发电行业的管理模式创新研究>;<湖北省城镇污水处理项目PPP模式及相关制度研究>

摘　　要：以湖北省2007-2013年城市生活垃圾清运量为基础数据,建立新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对湖北省未来七年的城市生活垃圾清运量进行了分析预测.采用该模型预测湖北省2014-2020年城市生活垃圾清运量,预计到2020年,湖北省城市生活垃圾清运量将达到838.7万吨,其预测结果可作为"十三五"期间湖北省城市生活垃圾处置规划的理论依据.According to the the statistics of the collected amount of MSW in Hubei Province during 2009 to 2013, the dynamic gray prediction model of six and seven dimension are adopted to forecast and analyze the collected amount of municipal solid waste(MSW) in Hubei Province for the next seven years. The model is adopted to predict the collected amount of MSW in Hubei Province during 2014 to 2020,and the collected amount of MSW will reach 8404000 tons in 2020. The prediction results can provide scientific basis for MSW disposal planning of Hubei Province.

关 键 词：城市生活垃圾 清运量预测 新陈代谢GM(1 1)模型 湖北省 

分 类 号：X799.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]