低碳约束下的中国钢铁行业能耗情景分析  

Energy consumption scenario analysis of China's steel industry under low carbon constraints

作　　者：吴凡 谢文秀 WU Far;XIE Wen-xiu(China Cinda Asset Management Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China;School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081 ,China;School of Joint Servicing,National Defense University of PLA,Beijing 100858,China)

机构地区：[1]中国信达资产管理股份有限公司,北京100031 [2]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [3]国防大学联合勤务学院,北京100858

出　　处：《现代化工》2019年第1期12-17,共6页Modern Chemical Industry

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划"城市可持续发展能力评估模型及资源能源指标构成研究"(2013BAJ04B02);装备军内科研"试验后勤保障资源管理分析系统研究"(4114142003)

摘　　要：钢铁产业是中国典型的高耗能高排放产业,也是中国节能减排的重点产业。基于CGE模型和优化模型求解了满足累积成本最小条件的钢铁生产技术路径,获得了未来钢铁行业的技术路线、能源消费和碳排放情景,并评估了不同碳税政策的影响。研究表明,未来钢铁产业的主要节能潜力在炼焦和高炉炼铁环节,吨钢能耗下降的重要驱动力是电炉钢比重的提升,而碳税政策对钢铁能耗的下降影响有限。The steel industry is a typical energy-intensive and high-emission industry in China and also a key industry for China's energy conservation and emission reduction.Based on the CGE model and the optimization model,this paper finds the steel production technology path that meets the minimum cost of cumulative cost,obtains the future technical route,future energy consumption and carbon emission scenarios for the steel industry,and evaluates the impacts of different carbon tax policies.Research results indicate that the main energy-saving potential in the future exists in the process of eoking and blast furnace iron-making in the steel industry.The main driving force for the reduction of energy consumption per ton of steel is the increase in the ratio of electric furnace steel.The carbon tax policy has a'limited impact on the decline of steel energy consumption in the long term.

关 键 词：低碳约束 CGE模型 优化模型 工序能耗 CO2排放 钢铁行业 

分 类 号：F426.31[经济管理—产业经济]