ECMWF高分辨率网格对云南区域降水预报性能的定量检验  

Quantitative Verification of Precipitation Forecasts Performance in Yunnan by ECMWF High Resolution Grid

作　　者：张超 孙绩华[3] 巩远发[2] 段玮[4] ZHANG Chao;SUN Ji-hua;GONG Yuan-fa;DUAN Wei(Yunnan Meteorological Service Center,Kunming 650034,China;College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象服务中心,云南昆明650034 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [3]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [4]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2018年第6期688-703,共16页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：云南省科技惠民专项资助项目(2016RA096)

摘　　要：针对ECMWF高分辨率网格的降水产品在云南山地区域适用性的问题,采用云南2016年逐24 h和逐3 h的区域站观测资料,利用平均绝对误差的计算公式,对ECMWF模式降水产品的预报性能进行定量检验。首先把降水观测资料插值成格点资料,然后将云南区域内的观测降水分布与ECWMF模式的预测降水分布进行对比,绘制每个格点上预报减观测得到的平均绝对误差分布图,最后利用区域平均法对预报质量进行讨论。结果表明,ECMWF模式对于地形相对平缓的滇中到滇东南地区,模式的误差值较小,预报质量较好;而对于地形相对复杂的山脉及河谷地区,模式的误差值较大,预报质量相对较差。随着预报时效的增加,预报误差也在增加,并且逐3 h的降水预报误差大于逐24 h的预报误差。In view of the applicability of ECMWF high-resolution grid precipitation products in the Yunnan mountainous region,the forecast data of ECMWF-type precipitation products are forecasted by using the regional station observation data of Yunnan in 2016 for 24 h and 3 h respectively.Andthe average absolute error calculation formulais used andthequantitative tests are performed.Firstly,the precipitation observation data were interpolated into grid data,and then the observed precipitation distribution in the Yunnan region was compared with the ECWMF model’s predicted precipitation distribution,and the average absolute error distribution map obtained from the forecast minus observation at each grid point was plotted.The regional average method isusedto discuss the quality of the forecast at last.The results show that the ECMWF model has a smaller error value and better prediction quality for the relatively flat terrain in the middle to southeast Yunnan province,while for the relatively complex topographic mountain and valley areas,the model has larger error values and the forecast quality is relatively high.With the increase of forecasting time,the forecast error is also increasing,and the forecast error of precipitation by 3 h is larger than that by 24 h.

关 键 词：气象学 数值模式检验 区域站 降水分布 平均绝对误差 区域平均法 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]