中国对“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口增长二元边际及其影响因素分析  

Dual margin of China's agricultural products export growth in the Belt and Road region and its determinants

作　　者：黄杰 刘成 冯中朝 HUANG Jie;LIU Cheng;FENG Zhongchao(College of Economics and Management/Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural Universtty,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2018年第12期187-199,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家"现代农业产业技术体系建设"专项(CARS-0012);国家自然科学基金项目(71273103);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(71461010701);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473100);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790036)

摘　　要：为研究中国农产品在"一带一路"沿线国家出口增长特征,探究贸易成本对农产品出口增长二元边际的影响,本研究以"一带一路"沿线64个国家为样本,选取1997—2016年中国对"一带一路"沿线64个国家农产品HS-6位编码数据,运用H-K测度方法和核密度估计的估计方法进行研究,探索中国对"一带一路"沿线64个国家农产品出口增长的源泉,进一步深入分析各项贸易成本对于农产品出口增长二元边际的作用。结果表明,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家农产品出口增长扩展边际和集约边际波动较大,扩展边际对农产品出口增长起主要推动作用;经济规模、地理面积、人口密度对农产品出口增长扩展边际和出口增长集约边际均有显著正影响;关税水平、贸易距离、各国进口所需文件数、贸易国建立仓库所需时间、汇率成本和外部冲击对农产品出口增长扩展边际具有显著负影响,关税水平、各国进口所需文件数、贸易国建立仓库所需时间、汇率成本和外部冲击对农产品出口增长集约边际具有显著负影响。In order to study the characteristics of China’s agricultural exports and explore the impact of trade costs on the dual margin of agricultural export growth in the Belt and Road(the B&R)region,a total of 64 countries along the B&R are taken as objectives,the HS-6 bit codes data of China’s agricultural products export to the B&R Region from1997 to 2016 is selected.H-K measurement method and nuclear density estimation are used to explore the source of China’s agricultural exports growth in 64 countries along the B&R region and to further analyze the role of trade costs in the dual margin of the export growth of agricultural products.The results show that:The dual margin of China’s agricultural exports growth have been greatly fluctuated to the B&R region and the extensive margin growth has played a major role in promoting the growth of agricultural exports of China.Economic size,geographical area and population density have a significant positive impact on the dual margin of agricultural exports;Tariff levels,geographical distances,the number of documents required for import countries,the time required for trade countries to establish warehouses,exchange rate costs and external shocks have a significant negative impact on the extensive margin of agricultural exports;The tariff levels,the number of documents required for importing each country,the time requiredfor trade countries to establish warehouses,exchange rate costs and external shocks are significant negative impacts on the intensive margin growth of agricultural exports.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 农产品 扩展边际 集约边际 出口增长 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]