经济政策不确定性、金融摩擦与民间投资增速下降  

Uncertainty in Economic Policy,Financial Friction and Decline in Private Investment Growth

作　　者：李鹏飞[1] 孙建波 LI Peng-fei;SUN Jian-bo(Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beifing 100836;Zhongyue Capital Management Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100087)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中阅资本管理股份公司,北京100087

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第6期45-52,155,共9页Journal of Zhengzhou University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目"中国工业绿色发展研究"(项目编号:SKGJCX2016);中国社会科学院京津冀协同发展智库项目"京津冀创新发展的协同研究"(项目编号:201702);国家自然科学基金青年项目"能源和水资源消耗总量约束下的中国重化工业转型升级的动态CGE模型与政策研究"(项目编号:71203232)

摘　　要：促进民间投资健康发展是推进供给侧结构性改革的重要内容。本文通过基于实物期权效应、金融加速器效应和债务-通缩效应的理论分析与面板回归模型估计,发现经济政策不确定性对民间投资增长具有显著的抑制效应,而且表现出明显的行业差异,在投资不可逆程度更高的行业,此抑制效应更大。中介效应模型估计结果显示,经济政策不确定性对民间投资的负面影响具有多维特征,既有直接的实物期权效应,也有因金融摩擦而形成的显著中介效应,并且金融摩擦通过金融加速器效应和债务-通缩效应,对经济政策不确定性的民间投资抑制效应产生了明显的放大作用。强化各类经济政策的统筹协调、深入推进利率市场化改革、针对投资不可逆程度高和民间投资增速下降幅度大的行业精准发力,能够促使民间投资增速回稳向好。Promoting the healthy development of private investment is an important part for the advancement of supply-side structural reform.Based on the theoretical analysis of the real option effect,the financial accelerator effect and the debt-deflation effect together with the panel regression model,this paper has revealed that uncertainty in economic policy exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on private investment growth and shows obvious industry differences.The median effect model estimates show that the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on private investment has multidimensional characteristics including both direct real option effects and significant mediating effects due to financial friction.Through financial accelerator effects and debt-deflation effect,financial friction can effectively amplify the inhibitory effect of the private investment produced by uncertainty in economic policy.The growth of private investment can be more stable by strengthening the overall coordination of various economic policies,deepening the reform of interest rate liberalization,and focusing on the trade with high degree of irreversible investment and sharp decline in the growth rate of private investment.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 民间投资 金融摩擦 中介效应模型 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]