不确定条件下复杂系统可靠性建模与分析综述  

Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems under Uncertainty

作　　者：李志强 徐廷学 顾钧元 刘玉东[2] Li Zhiqiang;Xu Tingxue;Gu Junyuan;Liu Yudong(Naval Aeronautical University,Yantai 264001,China;Unit 95080 of the PLA,Shantou 515000,China)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学 [2]95080部队

出　　处：《战术导弹技术》2018年第6期13-19,共7页Tactical Missile Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51605487)

摘　　要：针对复杂系统在状态划分、模式分类、参数设定等各个环节引入了以主观判断为主的不确定性信息这一问题,在阐述不确定性内涵的基础上,归纳总结了不确定条件下复杂系统可靠性建模与分析的常用方法,包括区间分析、模糊数学、贝叶斯理论、证据理论以及组合方法,并预计了今后不确定条件下可靠性建模与分析的研究重点,即考虑人因的可靠性分析和基于多源数据融合的可靠性分析。Aiming at the problem of uncertain information,the definition of uncertainty is introduced,when the information is mainly based on objective judgment of complex systems that is caused by states division,modes classification and parameters setting. And common methods of reliability modeling and analysis of complex systems under uncertain conditions are summarized,including interval analysis,fuzzy theory,Bayesian theory,D-S theory and combined methods. And important research directions of reliability modeling and analysis are predicted,i. e.,reliability analysis taking human errors into consideration and reliability assessment based on data fusion from multiple resources.

关 键 词：可靠性分析 多状态 不确定性 可靠性建模方法 

分 类 号：N945.17[自然科学总论—系统科学]