明代海禁政策变迁中的博弈:从双边分歧到多边促成  

Game analysis on the change of the ban policy in Ming dynasty:from bilateral difference to multilateral contribution

作　　者：韩毅[1] 潘洪岩[1] Han Yi;Pan Hongyan(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning,110000)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110000

出　　处：《山东师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2018年第6期87-100,共14页Journal of Shandong Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：作者参与研究的国家社科基金重大项目"制度变迁视角下的中国二元经济转型研究"(11&ZD146)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：明代海禁政策的变迁始于明初,终于明末。官商、外商和国内私人海商力量,围绕着海禁政策变迁展开博弈,影响了海禁政策在不同阶段的启动和实施。明代海禁政策变迁,经历了从最初的相关利益群体尖锐对立,到相关利益集团经过多边协调,海禁政策变迁最后得以实现。这个复杂的政策变迁过程体现了相关利益集团利益诉求的不断转变。基于利益集团理论,使用博弈论分析方法,可以假设海禁政策变迁中仅仅存在禁海方和开海方两个利益联盟,通过建立模型,分析明代海禁政策变迁过程中,利益主体是如何从最初的直接对立,经过博弈和妥协,最后达成多边认同。利用利益集团理论和博弈论分析明代海禁政策变迁是一种新的尝试。The change in the ban policy on maritime trade started in the early period of Ming dynasty and ended in the end of the dynasty. A game was started centering around the change of the ban policy on maritime trade by the forces of official merchants,foreign merchants and domestic private maritime merchants,affecting the start and execution of the ban policy in different stages. The change of the ban policy experienced,at first,sharp oppositions from the relevant interest groups,then a deadlock for a time. and later multilateral coordination from the relevant interest groups,and finally after twists and turns,the change of the ban policy was really realized. This complex process of policy change reflected the continuous change of the appeal attitude of the relevant interest groups. This paper tries to use the economic game theory analysis method,assuming that there are only two interest alliances between the forbidden-sea side and the open-sea side in the change of the ban policy,and through the establishment of a model,to analyze how the two main interest subjects behaved in the process of the change of the ban policy in the Ming Dynasty: direct opposition came at the beginning,and then through game and compromise,finally a multilateral recognition was achieved,so that the final change of the ban policy could be smoothly advanced and realized. It is a new attempt to use interest group theory and game theory to analyze the changes of the ban policy on maritime trade in Ming Dynasty.

关 键 词：明代海禁 利益集团 政策变迁 博弈 

分 类 号：K248[历史地理—历史学]