基于微观调查数据的我国粮食需求影响因素研究  

Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors of Grain Demand in China Based on the Microcosmic Survey Data

作　　者：牟新娣 李秀婷 董志 董纪昌 苗晋瑜 Mou Xindi;Li Xiuting;Dong Zhi;Dong Jichang;Miao Jinyu(University of Chinese Academy and Sciences,School of Economics and Management,Beijing,100190;Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2018年第10期915-926,共12页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(Y72902VED2):新时期国民营养与粮食安全研究;项目负责人:董纪昌

摘　　要：随着我国人口数量增长和结构改变,以及城市化和工业化的进一步推进,迫切需要对我国的粮食需求规模、结构和布局进行重新评估,以从"需求侧"倒逼"供给侧"改革。基于国科大学生网络开展全国范围的粮食消费抽样调查,收集粮食需求微观数据,据此对我国粮食需求特征及其影响因素进行分析挖掘。研究得出,我国居民粮食摄入量呈下降趋势,地区、年龄、收入是影响粮食需求的关键因素,粮食摄入量在地区、年龄、收入等方面存在显著差异性。我国居民粮食摄入量与居民年龄之间存在显著的倒"U"型关系。最后,从科学估计粮食需求、优化粮食时空布局层面提出政策建议。Carrying out a sample survey of food consumption based on students in University of Chinese Academy and Sciences. Analyzing the characteristics of China’s grain demand and its influencing factors. It concludes that Chinese have a downward trend in grain intake, and there are significant differences in grain intake in terms of area, age and income. There is a significant U-type relationship between grain intake and age in China. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions from the aspects of scientifically estimating grain demand and optimizing grain space-time layout.

关 键 词：粮食需求 粮食调研 方差分析 回归分析 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]