市场化进程加速了人口流动吗?——人口流动的市场化陷阱  

Does Marketization Accelerate Population Flows in China?——Marketization Trap on Population Flows

作　　者：陆丰刚[1] 陈寅平[1] LU Feng-gang;CHEN Yin-ping(School of Economics,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《人口与发展》2019年第1期2-11,共10页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"东北地区人口结构和人力资源流失问题分析与对策研究"(71541023);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目:"东北地区人口流动经济效应研究"(项目编号:18JYB149)

摘　　要：采用我国31个省市区1997-2014年人口、经济数据以及樊纲和王小鲁等分省份市场化指数数据,运用面板固定效应方法和差分GMM方法,研究市场化程度对人口净流入地区和人口净流出地区人口流动速度的影响。统计研究表明,人口净流入地区基本都属于经济相对发达地区;而人口净流出地区则无一例外都属于经济相对欠发达地区;市场化进程在加快了人口净流入地区人口流入速度,为其提供充足人口资源的同时,加剧了人口净流出地区人口流失问题,使其陷入人口流动的市场化陷阱;市场化改革并不是必然会导致人口流失问题,人口净流出地区在减少政府对企业干预、促进非国有企业发展方面的市场化改革会降低人口流出速度,而产品市场、要素市场和中介市场方面的市场化进程则会加速人口流出。人口净流入地政府需要把政策重心放在高素质人口和高端人才引进上,人口净流出地政府则需要明确市场和政府作为界限,通过短期关注人口个体需求,长期改进资源配置效率和提高经济增长潜力来应对市场化给人口流动带来的问题。Based on the 1997-2014 panel dada of 31 provinces on population,economic indi-cators and the provincial marketization indexes of Wang Xiaolu and Fan Gang,panel fixed-effects and differential GMM estimations are used to study the effects on population flows of the degree of marketization in net-population-inflow provinces and net-population-outflow provinces.Statistical results show that most net-population-inflow provinces are developed economies and all net-population-outflow provinces results show that on one hand,marketization speeds up population inflows economies.Empirical in net-population-inflow provinces and provide in net-population-outflow to the marketization trap on with enormous human resources,provinces aggravates the problem on the other hand,marketization of population loss and leave them population flows.A further regression study on the relationship be-tween population flows and the components of marketization shows policies promoting markets and encouraging non-state owned businesses have negative effect on population outflows in net-population-outflow provinces.Empirical results imply that,government in net-population-inflow provinces should focus on policies to attract highly-educated population and talents and government in net-population-outflow provinces should make clear the boundary of government and market,and concentrate on individual needs and improving resource-allocation effi-ciencies to promote economic potential to find a way to handle population loss.

关 键 词：市场化 人口流动 人口流动的市场化陷阱 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]