产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应研究  

Research on the Effects of Industrial Structure Adjustment and Technical Progress on Haze Reduction

作　　者：程中华[1] 刘军[1] 李廉水[1] CHENG Zhong-hua;LIU Jun;LI Lian-shui(China Institute of Manufacturing Development,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国软科学》2019年第1期146-154,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于大数据融合的气象灾害应急管理研究"(16ZDA047);国家自然科学基金项目"生产性服务业集聚促进我国城市绿色全要素生产率提升的机制及其路径研究"(71803087);江苏省社会科学基金项目"产业集聚对江苏新型城镇化的影响与对策研究"(17EYC010);江苏省哲学社会科学规划一般项目"产业集聚视角下江苏新型城镇化的路径及对策研究"(2017SJB0152)

摘　　要：加快产业结构调整和技术进步对中国雾霾减排至关重要。基于2003-2016年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应。研究结论表明:从整体层面看,在产业结构调整的雾霾减排效应当中,产业结构高级化的雾霾减排效应较强,而产业结构合理化对雾霾减排的促进作用相对较弱。在技术进步的雾霾减排效应当中,技术效率改善的雾霾减排效应较强,而科技进步对雾霾减排的促进作用相对很弱。同时,这些雾霾减排效应还受到城市人口规模和经济发展阶段的约束。特大城市和大城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于产业结构高级化发展,而中等城市和小城市可以从技术效率改善中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。工业化初期阶段城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于技术效率改善,而工业化中期阶段城市和后期阶段城市可以分别从产业结构高级化和合理化发展中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。It is essential for China’s haze reduction to accelerate industrial structure adjustment and technical progress.Based on the statistical data of 285 cities in China during 2003-2016,the study uses dynamic spatial panel model to empirically analyze the effects of industrial structure adjustment and technical progress on haze reduction. The results show that: from the overall level,in the haze reduction effects of industrial structure adjustment,the haze reduction effect of the upgrading of industrial structure is strong,while the optimization of industrial structure is relatively weak. In the haze reduction effects of technical progress,the haze reduction effect of efficiency change is strong,while the effect of technological change on haze reduction is relatively very weak. Meanwhile,these haze reduction effects are restrained by urban scale and economic development stage. The haze reduction of megalopolis and big cities benefits more from the upgrading development of industrial structure,while medium-sized cities and small cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from efficiency change. The haze reduction of early stage industrialization cities benefits more from efficiency change,while medium stage and late stage industrialization cities can obtain stronger haze reduction effect from the upgrading and the optimization of industrial structure respectively.

关 键 词：产业结构调整 技术进步 雾霾减排 动态空间面板 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]