中国一级流域年气温的时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual temperature in China's first-level basin

作　　者：王斌[1] 李鹏[1] 徐国策[1] 成玉婷 赵宾华[1] 魏芳[1] WANG Bin;LI Peng;XU Guoce;CHENG Yuting;ZHAO Binhua;WEI Fang(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulies in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048

出　　处：《资源科学》2019年第1期152-163,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家"十三五"科技支撑计划资助项目(2016YFC0402404)

摘　　要：气温的差异是造成自然景观和生态环境差异的主要因素之一。本研究采用全国一级流域735个气象站点1951—2013年气温资料,利用相对差分法、Hurst指数等方法对年气温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:全国年气温总体呈显著升高趋势,但长江区中部年气温变化不显著。全国、辽河、海河、淮河、黄河、长江、西南诸河、东南诸河和珠江区均存在区域年气温的最佳代表性气象站点,分别为铁干里克、彰武、乐亭、菏泽、海源、井冈山、加查、武夷山市和柳州。代表性气象站点的年气温可以用以快速评估流域年气温均值的变化特征。全国一级流域年气温变化的主周期大致为25～28年。近20～30年是研究期内的偏暖期,Hurst指数分析表明在未来相当长一段时期内,全国绝大部分地区的气温会呈现为升高趋势。"哈尔滨-北京-石家庄-西安-重庆-贵阳"连线附近年气温与年降水量主要呈(极)显著负相关关系,该连线接近于"胡焕庸线","胡焕庸线"附近的气候研究对中国生态环境保护和"一带一路"倡议具有重要意义。Temperature is one of the main factors causing the difference between the natural landscape and the ecological environment. Based on the annual temperature data of 735 meteorological stations during the period from 1951 to 2013 in China’s first-level basin, the relative difference method, Hurst index and other methods were employed to identify the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual temperature. The results illustrated that the annual temperature in China generally showed a significant upward trend, but the annual temperature in the middle of the Yangtze River region did not change significantly. The whole China, Liao River, Hai River and Huai River, Yellow River, Yangtze River, Southwest River, Southeast River, and Pearl River region all existed the best representative meteorological sites for annual temperature. The best representative meteorological sites were Tieganlike, Zhangwu, Laoting, Heze, Haiyuan,Jinggangshan, Jiacha, Wuyishan, and Liuzhou, respectively. The main period of annual temperature change in first-level basin regions in China is approximately 40~50 years. The last 20~30 years were the warmer period, Hurst index analysis showed that the temperature will continue to rise in future for the most parts of China. The annual temperature and the annual precipitation near the connection of "Harbin-Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Xi’an-Chongqing-Guiyang"exhibited a(highly)significant negative correlation. The connection is close to"Hu Line."The study of the climate near"Hu Line"is of great significance to the ecological environment protection and the Belt and Road strategy of our country. The Hurst index analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis of the annual temperature series demonstrate that the best representative meteorological stations can reflect the regional annual temperature trends and major cyclical changes. The method of estimating the annual average temperature of a region using the annual temperature of a representative meteorological site is meaningful. The me

关 键 词：一级流域 最佳代表性气象站点 气温 时空变化 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]