基于PVAR模型的城市土地综合承载力动态冲击效应——以京津冀城市群为例  

Research on the Dynamic Effect of Urban Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Based on PVAR Model: Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as an Example

作　　者：李新刚[1] 王双进 孙钰 LI Xingang;WANG Shuangjin;SUN Yu

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学公共管理学院,天津300134 [2]天津商业大学管理学院,天津300134 [3]不详

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2019年第1期I0026-I0032,共7页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJC790047);天津科技发展计划项目(18ZLZXZF00530);天津市教委人文社科重大项目(2016JWZD35)

摘　　要：研究对城市土地综合承载力进行评价,采用三维面板数据,构建京津冀城市群土地综合承载力系统的PVAR模型,运用面板脉冲响应函数和面板方差分解技术,分析内生变量之间的动态冲击效应,从而探寻它们之间的互动发展机制。研究发现:(1)科技文化承载力变动冲击能推动土地人口承载力水平的提高和经济社会承载力水平的发展,但土地人口承载力标准差新息冲击对资源环境承载力水平的提高具有抑制作用。(2)内生变量波动都受其自身变动冲击的影响最大,方差贡献度分别保持在95.54%、87.70%、86.50%、82.10%;土地人口、资源环境、科技文化承载力波动受经济社会承载力变动冲击的影响次之。The research evaluates the urban land comprehensive carrying capacity,using three-dimensional panel data,and constructs the system PVAR model of land comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.And it uses panel impulse response function and panel variance decomposition technique to analyze the dynamic effects of endogenous variables,so as to explore their interactive development mechanism.The research finds that:(1)The change impact of scientific and technological carrying capacity can promote the improvement of land population carrying capacity and the development of economic and social carrying capacity,but a standard deviation error shock of land population carrying capacity has the restraining effect on the improvement of resources and environment carrying capacity.(2)The fluctuations of endogenous variables are the most affected by the shock of their own changes,and the variance contribution rates are stable at 95.54%,87.70%,86.50%and 82.10%respectively;the fluctuations of land population,resources and environment,scientific and technological carrying capacity are all secondly affected by the shock of economic and social carrying capacity changes.

关 键 词：京津冀城市群 土地综合承载力 动态冲击效应 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]