基于里程碑事件的航空复杂装备研制进度风险管理研究  

Schedule Risk Management for the Development of Aviation Complex Equipment Based on Landmark Events

作　　者：潘喜悦 程永波[1] PAN Xi-yue;CHENG Yong-bo(College of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Finance & Economics,Nanjing 210046, China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第3期206-214,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573115;71774072;71372080);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(17GLA005);江苏高校哲学社会科学重大项目(2017ZDAXM010)

摘　　要：结合我国航空复杂装备研制现状,分析航空复杂装备研制的全过程,构建了基于里程碑事件的航空复杂装备研制进度GERT网络模型,求解得到航空复杂装备研制过程进度时间及方差,在该模型的基础上确定进度风险发生概率,进而对整个项目研制进度风险量化分析,并通过弹性分析确定关键里程碑事件的网络参数变化对整体研制进度风险的影响,分析得到关键进度风险控制点.最后以某飞机研制项目为例,通过建模分析验证研究方法的有效性.According to our country's present situation ofthe aviation complex equipment,we analyze the overall process of the development for the aviation complex equipment.A GERT network of the progress for development of aviation complex equipment is built to obtain the time and variance of the development process.Moreover,we receive the probability of risk occurrence on the basis of the model and quantitative analysis of the schedule risk of the development project.In addition,determining the effect of network parameters on the schedule risk by means of elastic analysis,and finding the critical control points of schedule risk.Finally,a case on the aircraft development project is used to validate the validity of the model.

关 键 词：航空复杂装备 里程碑事件 GERT网络 进度风险 

分 类 号：F426.5[经济管理—产业经济]