“一带一路”政策对新疆经济发展的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of “One Belt And One Road” Policy on Xinjiang's Economic Development

作　　者：韩雪娟 李国东[1] HAN Xue-Juan;LI Guo-dong(Applied Mathematics,Xinjiang University Of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学应用数学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第3期273-279,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金(14BTJ021);自治区自然科学基金(2017D01A24);国家自然科学基金(11461063)

摘　　要：在历史变迁发展的过程中,新疆始终是丝绸之路的必经之地,处在"丝绸之路经济带"的核心区域,"一带一路"政策的提出势必会对新疆的经济发展产生一定的影响,对"一带一路"政策的研究将会对新疆的经济发展起到很好的指导作用.本文对影响新疆经济发展的主要指标进行分析,通过层次分析法选取新疆维吾尔自治区2003-2015年全社会固定资产投资总额和城镇居民人均可支配收入作为经济实力比较的统计依据,建立灰色模型的方法探究"一带一路"政策对新疆经济发展的影响.所建模型平均相对误差控制在7.63%以内,拟合效果较好,结果表明:新疆是"一带一路"政策的受惠区,在该政策提出前后新疆的经济发展趋势呈现出明显的差别,并且在"一带一路"政策的推动下,新疆的经济发展有较大幅度的增长.In the course of historical changes and development, Xinjiang has always been a must for the Silk Road and is located in the core region of the "Silk Road economic belt".The proposal of the "Belt and Road" policy will certainly have a certain impact on the economic development of Xinjiang, and the study on the "Belt and Road" policy will play a good guiding role in the economic development of Xinjiang. This paper analyzes the main indexes that affect the economic development of Xinjiang, through the analytic hierarchy processto select the Xinjiang uygur autonomous region in 2003-2015 whole social fixed assets investment and urban per capita disposable income as economic strength comparing statistical basis, establish a grey model GM(1,1) to explore the "One Belt And One Road"policy impact on the economic development of Xinjiang. The model average relative error control within 7.63%, the fitting effect is good. The results showed that Xinjiang is the beneficiary area of the "One Belt And One Road" policy. The economic development trend of Xinjiang showed a significant difference before and after the policy was proposed, and under the impetus of the "One Belt And One Road" policy, the economic development of Xinjiang showed a significant increase.

关 键 词：“一带一路 经济发展 层次分析方法 灰色模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]