基于MaxEnt模型的马可波罗盘羊生境适宜性评价  

Assessment of habitat suitability of Ovis ammon polii based on MaxEnt modeling in Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve

作　　者：李美玲 陈强强 汪沐阳 杨维康[2] 张弛[2] 罗格平[2] 丁建丽[1] 林昱辰 LI Mei-ling;CHEN Qiang-qiang;WANG Mu-yang;YANG Wei-kang;ZHANG Chi;LUO Ge-ping;DING Jian-li;LIN Yu-chen(College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;CAS Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresources in Arid Land,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Urumqi 830011,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049, China;College of Resources and Environment,Linyi University,Linyi 276000,Shandong, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所中国科学院干旱区生物地理与生物资源重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]临沂大学资源环境学院,山东临沂276000

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2019年第2期594-603,共10页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503307);国家自然科学基金项目(31661143019;41661144001)资助

摘　　要：马可波罗盘羊(Ovis ammon polii)是帕米尔高原的特有和旗舰物种,开展其生境适宜性评价是有效保护该物种的前提和基础。2017年5—11月,用样线法调查了新疆塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区内马可波罗盘羊的地理分布现状,共确定马可波罗盘羊出现位点104个,结合27种环境变量数据,利用最大熵MaxEnt模型分析了该保护区内影响马可波罗盘羊分布的主要生境因子及其适宜生境分布特征。结果表明:MaxEnt模型的预测准确度较高(AUC值为0.955),可以用于该保护区马可波罗盘羊的生境适宜性评估。马可波罗盘羊有效适宜生境主要分布于该保护区西北部,面积为1288.53 km2,仅占整个保护区面积的8.12%。诸多因子中,海拔、温度季节性、植被类型、最湿季平均温、最冷月最低温和坡度是影响马可波罗盘羊生境最主要的环境变量,人为干扰以及土地利用对该保护区马可波罗盘羊适宜生境影响较小,马可波罗盘羊适宜的植被类型主要为荒漠和草原,适宜的海拔范围为3500～4800 m。对马可波罗盘羊种群的保护管理措施提出两点建议:控制人为干扰;识别和建立各适宜生境之间的迁徙廊道。Marco Polo sheep( Ovis ammon polii) is an endemic species and also a flagship species of Pamir Plateau. Assessment of habitat suitability is the prerequisite and basis for the effective conservation of this species. From May to November 2017,104 occurrence points of Marco Polo sheep were confirmed by using the line transect method. Combining 27 kinds of environmental variable factors,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the main factors affecting the distribution of Marco Polo sheep,and to assess its potentially suitable habitat in Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve. The results showed that the AUC( area under ROC curve) value was 0. 955,suggesting perfect predictive effect of the model. Suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest part of the reserve. The area of suitable habitat was around 1288.53km^2,which only accounted for 8.12% of the total area. Altitude,temperature seasonality,vegetation type,mean temperature of wettest quarter,lowest temperature of coldest month,and slope were the most important environmental factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of Marco Polo sheep,whereas human disturbance and land use had less influence. The suitable vegetation types of Marco Polo sheep were mainly desert and grassland,and the range of altitude was 3500-4800 m. We proposed two strategies on the conservation and management measures of Marco Polo sheep population: Controlling human disturbance and establishing a migration corridor among suitable habitats.

关 键 词：马可波罗盘羊 栖息地适应性 地理信息系统 塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]