浅析我国特种设备事故情况与经济发展水平的关系  

Discussion on the Relationship between the Accident of Special Equipment and Economic Development Level in China

作　　者：回彩娟[1] 杨洋 Hui Caijuan;Yang Yang(Patent Examination Cooperation(Beijing)Center of the Patent Office,CNIPA Beijing 100160;China Special Equipment Inspection and Research Institute Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]国家知识产权局专利局专利审查协作北京中心,北京100160 [2]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《中国特种设备安全》2019年第1期64-66,72,共4页China Special Equipment Safety

摘　　要：特种设备作为一种比较特殊的设备在推动国民经济发展的同时也因事故带来巨大的经济损失,而经济发展的同时也对特种设备的宏观风险带来影响。为寻找特种设备事故与经济发展之间的关系,摸清事故发生规律,本文以万台特种设备死亡率为研究对象,通过文献调研分析,最终从经济发展、经济发展结构和社会活动水平角度筛选出8个指标为观察对象,采用逐步多元回归分析法筛选出影响我国特种设备安全状况的主要经济社会发展指标为:人均GDP和城市人口密度,并建立了回归模型。应用弹性系数法对主要影响因素进行重要性排序,并推测万台设备死亡率将保持下降的趋势。As a kind of equipment with its own specialization,special equipment could promote the development of national economy and huge economic losses would be caused simultaneously due to the accidents, moreover,macro risks of special equipment would be influenced by economic development.In order to find out the relationship between the accident of special equipment and economic development,as well as the law of accident occurrence,this article takes the mortality rate of 10,000 special equipment as the research object,8 indicators are finally selected as observation objects from angles of economic development,economic development structure and social activity level throughout literature research and analysis,Per capita GDP and urban population density,as major indicators of economic and social development,are screened out by adopting stepwise multiple regression analysis and regression model is established.The main influence factors are sorted by elasticity coefficient and it was speculated that the mortality rate of 10,000 special equipment will supposedly keep falling trend.

关 键 词：万台设备死亡率 经济社会发展指标 多元逐步回归 弹性系数 

分 类 号：X924[环境科学与工程—安全科学]