基于GNSS PWV的短临降雨预测方法  

A Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Method based on GNSS PWV Data

作　　者：单路路 姚宜斌[1,2] 赵庆志[1] 刘立[3] SHAN Lulu;YAO Yibin;ZHAO Qingzhi;LIU Li(School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy,Ministry of Education,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;The First Institute of Surveying and Mapping,Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学地球空间环境与大地测量教育部重点实验室,湖北武汉430079 [3]浙江省第一测绘院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《测绘地理信息》2019年第1期22-26,共5页Journal of Geomatics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41274022)

摘　　要：全球导航卫星系统(global navigation satellite system,GNSS)能够有效地反演大气可降水量(preipitable water vapor,PWV),相对于传统的无线电探空技术具有时间分辨率高、分布广泛、精度高等特点,适用于研究强对流等灾害性降雨天气过程中的水汽变化。通过研究大气可降水量时变特征与降雨之间的正相关关系,发现降雨发生数小时内PWV含量有急剧增大的现象,由此提出并建立了一种基于GNSS PWV的短临降雨预测方法。利用2014-09-01～2015-08-31浙江连续运行参考站(continuously operating reference station,CORS)网的GNSS观测数据和降雨量信息对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法预测短临降雨的正确率达到80%,而误报率控制在66%左右,与目前国际同行根据PWV预测出的结果相比,正确率提高约7%。将该预测方法应用于武汉2010年全年降雨中,结果显示,该方法对于降雨的短临预测具有较好的适用性和较高的预测精度。Global navigation satellite system(GNSS)can effectively retrieve precipitable water vapor(PWV)with the advantages of high-temporal resolution,wide distribution,and high precision,etc.GNSS PWV can be used to study the water vapor variations in the process of strong convective and other severe rain weather.The studying the positive correlation between the time-varying characteristic of PWV and rainfall reveals that PWV content has sharply increased within a few hours before rainfalls occur.Thus,a shortterm rainfall forecasting method is proposed based on the GNSS-derived PWV and validated by the data from Zhejiang continuously operating reference sStation(CORS)network for the period of 2014.9.1-2015.8.31 and rainfall information.The forecasting results show that the forecast correct rate of the method can reach about 80%,while the false alarm rate is about 66%.Compared with the existing results,the correct rate of the proposed method is increased by about 7%.The method was also applied to the annual rainfall of Wuhan in 2010,and the result shows that the method has a good applicability and high precision.

关 键 词：GNSS PWV 短临降雨预测方法 正确率 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]