可持续视角下城镇职工基本养老保险的财政兜底责任评估——对“全面二孩”和延迟退休政策效应的再考察  

Fiscal Responsibility Assessment of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees from a Sustainable Perspective——Re-Examination on the Effect of Universal Two-Child Policy and Delaying Retirement Policy

作　　者：张心洁[1] 曾益[2] 石晨曦 刘彤彤 Zhang Xinjie;Zeng Yi;Shi Chenxi;Liu Tongtong

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院 [3]重庆工商大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2018年第12期97-113,共17页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"健康治理视域下社会;心理资本对农村重大疾病患者健康的影响研究"(71804061);江苏省社会科学基金项目"共享发展理念下江苏精准健康扶贫机制设计及效益监测研究"(17LC003);全国统计科学研究项目"可行能力视角下健康扶贫绩效评价指数编制及应用研究"(2017LY30)

摘　　要：伴随人口老龄化程度的不断加深,城镇职工基本养老保险基金支出压力不断增加。2002-2017年间,财政补贴其支出的年均增速达21.94%,显著高于同期财政收入增速。然而,受国民经济常态化发展影响,财政收入增速不断放缓。加之,"城职保"制度运行还存在转制成本偿还机制未建立、政府财政责任分担不明等问题。那么,要想实现"城职保"制度的可持续发展,财政是否会不堪重负?鉴于此,本文以实现"城职保"基金在短期(2018-2050)、中期(2018-2065)内能正常运转和维持当前待遇为前提,通过构建精算模型仿真分析基金的财务运行情况及财政需承担的兜底责任。研究发现,实行"全面二孩"政策能在一定程度上提高基金的可持续运行能力,且生育意愿越高作用越明显。但因为这种调整对基金赤字时点和年限的影响有限,本文进一步模拟了延迟退休可能产生的影响。结果显示,无论是否考虑性别差异,延迟退休均能明显提高基金的可持续运行能力。基于此,本文提出应尽快完善鼓励二孩生育、延迟退休年龄和提高基金保值增值能力等政策建议。With the accelerating aging population in China,the pressure of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees (BPIUE)fund is also increasing.The average annual growth rate of government subsidy has reached 21.94 %,significantly higher than fiscal revenue in the same period.Coupled with the normal development of the national economy,the growth rate of fiscal revenue is continuing to slow down.Then the reimbursement mechanism of cost on the transition of BPIUE has not been established,and the fiscal responsibility among governments is also unclear.Whether the fiscal burden will be overwhelmed?So,in order to realize smooth operation of fund within a stage,this paper constructed an actuarial model to analyze the financial situation of BPIUE fund and fiscal subsidy.We found that the universal two-child policy can improve the sustainability of fund to a certain extent,and higher the willingness of giving birth,and more obvious of the effect.On this basis, we further simulated the impact of delaying retirement.The result shows that it can improve the sustainability of fund significantly,regardless of gender differences.Based on this,this paper proposes that we should encourage the birth of two children,delay the retirement age and improve value maintenance and increment of the fund.

关 键 词：城镇职工基本养老保险制度 生育政策 延迟退休 精算模型 

分 类 号：F840.684[经济管理—保险]