市场外环境禽流感监测数据的分析与利用  

Analysis of the surveillance of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus from market environmental surveillance data

作　　者：张瑞红[1] 李雷[1] 陈雪琴[1] 王曼[1] 冯志锋 ZHANG Rui-hong;LI Lei;CHEN Xue-qin;WANG Man;FENG Zhi-feng(Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan,Guangdong 528403,China)

机构地区：[1]中山市疾病预防控制中心卫生防疫科,广东中山528403

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2019年第4期613-616,624,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的为更好地利用市场外环境禽流感监测数据指导防控工作。方法用生态学趋势研究方法对中山市2014-2017年的市场常规外环境监测数据进行描述性分析,结合人感染H7N9的病例数进行等级相关分析和logistics回归分析。结果中山市市场外环境样本总计H7亚型禽流感病毒的阳性率(下简称H7阳性率)为5.37%(397/7396);月度市场外环境的H7阳性率与发生人感染H7N9病例数存在正相关(r=0.52,P<0.05),H7污染情况为人感染H7N9病例的危险因素(RR=5.92, P<0.05, 95%CI:1.43～24.56);综合市场H7的阳性率6.72%要显著高于禽类批发市场的1.85%(χ~2=68.16,P<0.05);砧板、刀具及台面的H7阳性率为7.43%,高于禽类笼具及冰箱物表的4.28%和禽类粪便、污水及地面的2.73%(χ~2=68.96,P<0.05)。结论综合市场的活禽交易区仍应是禽流感防控的重点区域之一,但小范围的短期的活禽交易限制对减少人们暴露的作用有限;单纯依靠市场外环境监测结果开展预警、预测远远不够,需要进一步规范和扩大外环境禽流感病毒的监测。Objective To use the data of surveillance of avian influenza A(H7) virus from market environments. Methods An ecological trend study was used for environmental monitoring data from markets in Zhongshan City during 2014-2017.Results The total positive rate of avian influenza A(H7) virus from market environments was 5.37%(397/7396). There was a positive correlation between the positive rate of H7 form market environments and the monthly numbers of human H7 N9 cases(r=0.52, P<0.05). More serious contaminations of H7 virus were the risk factors for human H7 N9 cases(RR=5.92, P<0.05, 95% CI:1.43-24.56). The positive rate of avian influenza A(H7) virus from comprehensive market was statistically greater than from wholesale market(χ^2=68.16, P<0.05). The positive rate of avian influenza A(H7) virus with cutting boards,knives, and mesa was greatest among those with bird cages or refrigerator object table and with poultry manure, sewage, or the ground(χ^2=68.96, p P<0.05). Conclusion The live poultry trade sector in the comprehensive market should still be one of the avian influenza preventions of key areas. However, it’s not enough to reduce people exposed to avian flu using small range of short-term live poultry trade restrictions. More environmental monitoring should be conducted in the private family with chicken breeding.

关 键 词：生态学趋势研究 等级相关分析 logistics回归分析 H7阳性率 人感染H7N9病例 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]