基于VAR模型的混合动力VLCC船舶营运数据分析  

Analysis of Ship Operation Data of Hybrid-powered VLCC Based on VAR Model

作　　者：董文良 金向军 罗小芳[2] 陈映秋 白旭[3] DONG Wenliang;JIN Xiangjun;LUO Xiaofang;CHEN Yingqiu;BAI Xu(The Chinese Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers,Beijing 100861,China;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,a.School of Economics & Management;b.School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国造船工程学会,北京100861 [2]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212003 [3]江苏科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,江苏镇江212003

出　　处：《船舶工程》2018年第12期84-89,共6页Ship Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术船舶科研计划项目:风帆技术示范应用开发;国家自然科学基金(71601087);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(15YJC630088)

摘　　要：通过构建有关VLCC船舶关键营运数据的分析谱系,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析目标混合动力船型的船价、运费、燃油价格等关键经济变量相互间的动态影响路径和机制。研究结果发现:从中长期考虑,燃油价格是影响新造船价格变化的第二大重要经济变量,反映出节能减排型船舶的内在市场需求,以及开发和推广混合动力船型具有的重大商业意义。Through customizing the analysis pedigree of key operation data of VLCC,using VAR model,the dynamic influence path and mechanism between the key economic variables such as ship price,shipping fees and bunker price of the object hybrid-powered VLCC type are analyzed.The study finds that the bunker price,in the medium and long term,is the second most significant economic variable affecting the evolution of the newbuilding ship price,which reflects the intrinsic market need of VLCC with energy-saving and emission-reducing technology,as well as the commercial significance of developing and promoting the hybrid-powered ship.

关 键 词：超大型原油运输船 混合动力 技术经济可行性研究 VAR模型 

分 类 号：U674[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] F55[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]