基于区间GERT网络的工程项目工期-成本-质量联合优化模型  

Time-cost-quality Joint Optimization Model of Construction Project Based on the Interval GERT Network

作　　者：韩瑜 徐海燕[1] 蒋建飞 杨保华 HAN Yu;XU Hai-yan;JIANG Jian-fei;YANG Bao-hua(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China;Cethik Group Corporation,Hangzhou 310012,China;School of Business,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]中电海康集团研究院,浙江杭州310012 [3]江苏师范大学商学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第8期61-69,共9页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471087;71301064;71071076;61673209);教育部人文社科规划项目(18YJA630128);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX17_0221)

摘　　要：考虑实际工程项目中存在的不确定因素以及具体实施过程中存在的信息反馈、返工迭代等问题,提出了以区间数表征不确定参数,以概率性随机网络GERT搭建总体分析框架,并结合输出结果受限信息,建立了基于区间数的、有强制输出约束的GERT网络模型。以该区间GERT网络模型为核心,采用钟型函数模拟工程质量与工期之间的关系,构建在不确定环境下的工程项目工期-成本-质量联合优化模型。进而,运用遗传算法对其进行求解,估测项目中工期、成本、质量的可能分布数值。最后将模型应用于某卫星伸展机构研制项目,并将优化结果与相关文献方法进行对比分析,验证新模型的合理性与计算方法的有效性。Considering the existing uncertain factors and the problems of information feedback,rework iteration in the actual construction project,a new GERT network model based on the interval number and the limited information of output results is proposed,which uses interval numbers to represent the uncertain parameters,and adopts the probabilistic GERT to construct the general framework.A time-cost-quality joint optimization model of construction project based on this new network under the uncertain environment is established.Further,the genetic algorithm is applied to solve the model,and the probable distribution of time,cost and quality will be estimated in the project.Finally,the model is applied to a satellite deployable development project,and the optimal results are compared with the previous study to verify the rationality of the model and the validity of the calculation.

关 键 词：区间GERT 工期-成本-质量 优化模型 遗传算法 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]