考虑有限理性行为的大型工程复杂大群体动态决策仿真  

Simulation of Group Decision Making Process for Large-scale Construction Considering Bounded Rational Behaviors

作　　者：雷丽彩[1] 高尚 曾恩钰 LEI Li-cai;GAO Shang;ZENG En-yu(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第8期123-131,共9页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401150);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(17B267);湖南省社科规划办项目(17YBA369)

摘　　要：大型工程决策问题是一项涉及到多元利益相关者和多层次决策目标的复杂系统工程,需要综合利用众多专家和社会大众的智慧和经验,而在群体动态交互过程中决策者会由于偏好差异和利益冲突等产生自主博弈行为。因此,基于有限理性的视角,利用观点动力学对大型工程复杂大群体决策的个体观点交互过程和自主博弈行为进行仿真和分析,考虑决策者不同的个性特征(如固执程度和说服能力)对个体策略选择行为和群体交互进程的影响,进而引入决策主体的记忆和学习机制,使得大型工程群体决策的管理方法更加贴近和符合项目决策者实际的决策心理和行为特征。最后通过数值仿真得到大型工程群体决策的动态演变过程,结果表明动态群体决策的个体观点交互过程最终会收敛到单个大的观点簇。The decision-making problem of large-scale construction is a complex system engineering,which involves a wide range of decision-makers and multi-level objectives.It requires the public and the expert groups and other stakeholders to participate in the practical activity.In fact,group decision-making problem is a multi-stage interactive process,as well as a dynamic process of individual learning.Moreover,bounded rational behaviors would take place in the individual interactive process because of decision-makers’ preference differences and benefit conflicts.Thus,the processes of strategy selection and behaviors of individual interactions in the construction project management with uncertainty are modeled and simulated by opinion dynamics under the bounded rationality perspective.According to the asymmetry of information in group communication,this paper presents a payment matrix with incomplete information assuming that the individuals have different inclinations to change opinions and different abilities in convincing the others.Furthermore,memory and learning mechanism of agents is introduced,and the acquaintance for neighbors’ personality is updated through the process of communication.The investigation helps to understand the practical psychological and behavioral characteristics of project decision-makers and can serve as reference for guiding group communication in project management.The dynamically evolutionary process about the group decision-making of large-scale construction is obtained by numerical simulations.The simulation results reveal that the individual interactive process eventually converges to a single dominant opinion.

关 键 词：动态群体决策 工程决策 有限理性 观点动力学 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]