碳减排约束下的金融摩擦与二元边际——基于内生企业进入的E-DSGE模型分析  

Financial Frictions and Dual Margins under Carbon Emission Constraints——An Analysis with E-DSGE Model Based on Endogenous Firm Entry

作　　者：孙作人 吴昊豫[1] SUN Zuo-ren;WU Hao-yu(Business School,Shandong University at Weihai,Weihai 264209,China;Research Center for Soft Energy Science,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016 ,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学(威海)商学院,山东威海264209 [2]南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第9期1-15,共15页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71704095)

摘　　要：现有关于碳减排约束如何影响经济发展的研究更多聚焦于宏观层面,针对微观企业层面的分析明显不足。本文利用碳减排约束,金融摩擦和内生企业进入机制构造环境-动态随机一般均衡(E-DSGE)模型,从扩展边际(企业数量变动)和集约边际(企业产出变动)两个新的微观视角进行模拟研究,结果表明:(1)企业杠杆率是影响二元边际的重要因素,政府应在调结构稳杠杆基础上,推行碳减排政策的落实;(2)碳减排激励适度增加能降低粗放型生产和促进环保企业进入市场,过高则导致企业产出盲目扩张,产品价格下降,企业数量减少;(3)碳减排约束和金融摩擦存在交互作用,短期碳减排约束抑制金融加速效应,促进低效能企业转型升级,中期金融摩擦对碳减排约束有自动稳定作用,加速高效能企业扩大生产规模;(4)企业数量变动在近期受利率冲击和金融摩擦影响较大,但未来5年仍是技术进步和企业进入成本起主要作用。因此,降低企业进入门槛、实现绿色增长在中期对扩展边际起关键作用。最后,本文提出若干政策建议。Existing researches on how carbon emission constraints affect economic development have primarily focused on the macro-level,and the analysis on the micro-firm level is insufficient.We then develop an environmental-dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(E-DSGE)model for the analysis of the extensive(firm numbers change)and intensive(firm output change)margins that incorporates the financial frictions and endogenous firm entry under carbon emission constraints.We find that:(1)firm leverage ratio has a greater impact on dual margins than carbon emission reduction incentive,the government should impose the carbon tax on the basis that firm leverage has become stable;(2)with the increase of carbon emission reduction incentive,the extensive margin shows an inverted U-shaped change,the firm numbers moves up and down;(3)in the short-term,carbon emission constraints restrain financial accelerating effects and promote low-efficiency firm transformation and upgrading,but in the long-term,financial frictions have an automatic stabilizing effect on carbon emission constraints,accelerating high-performance firms to expand production scale;(4)the prediction variance decomposition of firm numbers has been mainly affected by interest rate shocks and financial frictions in this year,however,in the next five years,technology shock and firm entry costs will still play a leading role in firm numbers,and lowering the barriers to entry and achieving the green growth road will play a key role in extensive margin in the medium term.Finally,this paper proposes some policy recommendations.

关 键 词：碳减排约束 金融摩擦 二元边际 E-DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]