次贷危机前后十年主要经济体金融实力量化研究  

Quantitative Study on Financial Strength of Major Economies in the Decade Before and Ater the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

作　　者：张巍[1,2] 王英伦[1] 刘东浩 Zhang Wei;Wang Ying-lun;Liu Dong-hao

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]清华大学国情研究院

出　　处：《经济学家》2019年第2期103-112,共10页Economist

基　　金：中宣部全国哲学社科规划办高端智库建设项目(20155010298);博士后科学基金"公共资源管理与价格机制改革研究:以城镇居民用水为例"(2018M631423)

摘　　要：在次贷危机爆发至今的十周年间,国际秩序与世界格局发生了巨大的变化,各国的经济体系和金融实力也经历了深刻地调整与重塑。基于由24个二级指标组成的金融实力评价体系,本文从广度、集中度、影响力和稳定性的四个维度来评价一国金融实力,并对次贷危机前后10年全球主要经济体(中美日英德)的金融实力进行了量化分析。通过对世界五个主要经济体金融实力的纵向对比和横向对比可以发现:中国的金融实力相比过去十年已有显著提高,跃居世界第二金融强国,而日德的金融实力在这十年间出现了较明显地衰退。此外,次贷危机虽然在短期内影响了美国的金融实力,但目前看美国实力仍然显著强于其他大国,一超独霸的国际金融霸主地位依然难以动摇。In the decade after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the international order and the world pattern have undergone tremendous changes. The economic systems and financial strength of various countries have also undergone profound adjustment and reshaping. Based on the financial strength evaluation system consisting of 24 secondary indicators, this paper evaluates the financial strength of a country from the four dimensions including breadth, concentration, influence and stability, and quantitative analyzes the financial strength of the world’s major economies(China, US, Japan, UK and Germany) in the 10 years before and after the subprime mortgage crisis. Through vertical and horizontal comparison of the financial strength of the world’s five major economies, it is found that China’s financial strength has significantly improved compared with the past decade, and it has become the world’s second financial power, while Japan and Germany’s financial strength showed a pronounced recession during the period. In addition, although the subprime mortgage crisis has affected the financial strength of the United States in the short term, it is still significantly stronger than other big powers at present, and the international financial hegemony of it is still unshakable.

关 键 词：金融实力 国际比较 量化研究 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学]