甘肃省肃北县旱獭鼠疫流行与气象因素关联性分析  

Correlation between prevalence of marmot plague and meteorological factors in the natural plague foci of Subei County, Gansu Province

作　　者：苏永强 席进孝[1] 格鹏飞[1] 王鼎盛[1] 徐大琴[1] 吴斌[1] Su Yongqiang;Xi Jinxiao;Ge Pengfei;Wang Dingsheng;Xu Daqin;Wu Bin(Department for Plague Prevention,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730020, China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心鼠疫防制科,兰州730020

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2019年第2期117-121,共5页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：甘肃省卫生行业科研计划管理项目(GSGL2010-30、GSGL2014-72、GSWSKY-2017-21).

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省肃北县喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地内旱獭鼠疫流行与气象因素的关联性。方法收集肃北县喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地1973-2014年鼠疫监测资料(来源于甘肃省疾病预防控制中心),当年和领先1、2、3年(相对于当年作为参照的前1、2、3个年份),当月和领先1、2、3月气象因素(平均降雨量、温度、相对湿度)资料(来自于中国气象数据共享服务网)。采用SAS9.3软件进行鼠疫细菌学检测阳性率与气象因素的相关性分析;采用logistic回归分析气象因素对旱獭鼠疫流行的影响。结果1973-2014年,肃北县共发生6起人间鼠疫,死亡5例。鼠疫细菌学检测阳性率与当年平均相对湿度、领先1年平均温度呈正相关(r=0.366、0.385,P均<0.05),与领先3年平均相对湿度呈负相关(r=-0.304,P<0.05);鼠疫细菌学检测阳性率与领先1月平均降雨量呈正相关(r=0.212,P<0.05),与领先2、3月平均相对湿度呈负相关(r=-0.196、-0.201,P均<0.05)。肃北县旱獭疫源地动物鼠疫流行的危险因子为当月平均温度[比值比(OR)=1.304,95%置信区间(CI):1.195~1.422],保护因子为领先3月平均相对湿度(OR=0.960,95%CI:0.932~0.988)。结论肃北县喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫流行与气象因素关系密切,气温对鼠疫的流行不仅有促进作用,而且存在滞后效应。气象因素可作为喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地鼠疫风险评估的参考。Objective To analyze the relationship between meteorological variables and the prevalence of marmot plague in the Himalayan marmot foci of Subei County, Gansu Province. Methods The surveillance data (from Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention) on human plague, the meteorological factors (average rainfall, temperature, relative humidity) data (from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network) of the current and preceding (relative to current year as a reference) first, second and third years and meteorological factors data of the current and preceding first, second and third months in Subei of Himalayan marmot foci from 1973 to 2014 were collected. The association of positive rate of plague bacteriological detection and meteorological factors was evaluated by using SAS 9.3 software. The influence of meteorological factors on the epidemic of marmot plague was analyzed by the logistic regression analysis. Results From 1973 to 2014, 6 human plague cases with 5 dead cases occurred in Subei County. The positive rate of plague bacteriological detection was positively correlated with the average relative humidity of current year and the average temperature of preceding first year (r=0.366, 0.385, P < 0.05), and it was negatively correlated with the average relative humidity of preceding third year (r=- 0.304, P < 0.05);the positive rate of plague bacteriological detection was positively correlated with the average rainfall of preceding first month (r=0.212, P < 0.05), and it was negatively correlated with the average relative humidity of preceding second and third months (r=- 0.196,-0.201, P < 0.05). The risk factor of animal plague epidemic in marmot foci in Subei County was average temperature of current month [odds ratio (OR)=1.304, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.195-1.422], and the protective factor was average relative humidity of preceding third month (OR=0.960, 95%CI: 0.932-0.988). Conclusions The prevalence of marmot plague is closely associated with meteorological factors in the natu

关 键 词：旱獭属 鼠疫(耶尔森氏)杆菌 气象学 关联性 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]