海南省全年适于登革热传播的时间以及气候变暖对其流行潜势影响的研究  

Study on the suitable duration for dengue fever(DF) transmission in a whole year and potential impact on DF by global wanning in Hainan Province

作　　者：陈文江[1] 李才旭[1] 林明和[2] 吴开琛[3] 吴开录 赵志国[5] 

机构地区：[1]海南省热带病防治研究所,海口市570203 [2]万宁市卫生防疫站,万城镇571500 [3]中国预防医学科学院寄生虫病研究所,上海市200025 [4]海南师范学院数学研究所,海口市571158 [5]海南省卫生防疫站,海口市570203

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2002年第1期31-34,共4页China Tropical Medicine

摘　　要：目的 为探索海南省登革热流行的规律。方法 以感染蚊传染性寿命pn/-lnp≥1天所需的温度作为适于登革热传播的最低温度,再根据不同温度下登革病毒在蚊体内发育所需天数和海南省1987～1996年海南省气象资料,推算全年适于登革热传播的时间。结果 在埃及伊蚊日存活率P=0.89情况下适于传播的最低温度估计为21℃;海南北部地区冬季（12～2月）月均温度低于21℃,不适于登革热传播,南部地区的冬季略高于21℃,仅具备低速传播的温度条件。结论 推断海南省不是登革热地方性流行区,这与当地登革热传热流行的实际情况相符。但在全球变暖条件下,当冬季温度升高1～2℃,估算海南省全年均适于登革热传播,从而有可能成为登革热地方性流行区。ve To reseach the rule of dengue fever epiddemic in Hainan Province. Methods By the temperature needed for the infectious life span of infected mosqutio pn/ - lnp≥1 day is taken as the critical temperature suiable for teansmission of DF and according to the days need for dengue virus developing in mosquito and meteorology data in 1987 ~ 1996 in Hainan Province the duration of suitable for DF transmission in a whole year was estimated. Results By the daily survival rate of Aedes aegypti p = 0.89, the critical temperature suitable for DF transmission was estimated sa 21℃; In the northern area the mean temperature in winter (from December to February) is lower than 21℃ so that it is not suitable for DF transmission, in the southern area the temperature is rather higher than 21℃ in winter it only has temperature condition for low transminssion rate. Conclusion It is inferred that the Procince is not an endemic area of DF, it is consistent with the practice of dengue fecer epidemic in the province. But under the condition of global wanning, if temperature increases by 1 - 2℃ in winter, then it may be suitable for DF transmission in whole year so that the Province is possible to become an endemic area of DF.

关 键 词：登革热 埃及伊蚊 流行潜势 气候变暖 传播时间 海南 

分 类 号：R512.801[医药卫生—内科学]