行洪期间洪泽湖大堤防风浪漫溢的可靠性分析  

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF LEVEE OVERFLOW AGAINST WIND WAVE OF HONGZE LAKE AT HIGH WATER

作　　者：梅小文[1] 黄红虎[1] 周健康[1] 费勤贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利与建筑工程学院水利水电系,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《扬州大学学报（自然科学版）》2002年第1期36-39,共4页Journal of Yangzhou University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：考虑到风速的随机性 ,假定风速大小符合指数分布 ,推导出风浪波高这一随机变量的分布密度和分布函数 .同时 ,根据洪泽湖大堤在行洪期间风向变化和大堤漫溢的特点 ,分析计算了对大堤造成威胁的7种风向时大堤在 4种高水位下的漫溢概率 .并根据实测资料 ,统计分析了行洪期间各方位的大风频率 ,用全概率公式计算洪泽湖大堤在 4种洪水位时发生漫溢的概率 .从而提出了用物理模型与随机模型相结合 ,分析湖泊。Taking accounts of the randomness of wind speed and assuming that wind speeds follow exponent distribution, the distribution density and distribution function of wind wave height are deduced. According to the variation of wind speed direction and levee overflow character of Hongze Lake at high water, the overflow probabilities of seven different direction of wing which threaten the levee at four high water level have been analyzed and computed. By using of measured data, the wind frequency of occurrence at different direction in high water has been statistically analyzed, and the levee overflow probabilities of Hongze Lake at four high water level is calculated from total probability equation. So a method of analyzing reservoir levee against wind wave overflow is put up based on combination of physical and stochastic model.

关 键 词：洪泽湖大堤 风浪高度 防溢能力 行洪期间 漫溢概率 可靠性分析 风向 风速 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程]