北京地区区域性形变场与近期强震危险性研究  

Study on the regional deformation field and strong earthquake risk of Beijing Area in the near future

作　　者：谢觉民[1] 杨国华[1] 薄万举[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局第一地形变监测中心,天津300180

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2002年第1期1-9,共9页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目<大陆强震机理与预测>(G19984 0 70 0 )资助

摘　　要：分析 1 998～ 2 0 0 0年期间水准和 GPS测量给出的北京地区区域性形变场的背景值及其与定点断层形变观测值的关系。结果表明 :(1 )该地区的大面积垂直形变速率及速率梯度值在华北地区的通常数值之下 ,也低于若干大地震前的相应异常特征值 ;(2 )该区由 GPS方法显示的大面积水平形变速率也属于较低水平 ;(3)定点观测的断层形变速率 (垂直向和水平向 )与区域性的背景值相当 ;(4)根据大面积形变场的态势和断层形变异常水平 ,预计近期 (1～ 3年内 )北京地区不会发生较强地震。the background value of regional deformation field observed with leveling and GPS as well as its relationship with the faults deformation value given by fixed observation stations from 1998 to 2000 in Beijing area are analyzed.The study indicates;(1)The vertical deformation rates and its gradient in this area are lower than the normal value of North China area and the corresponding value before some strong earthquakes;(2)The horizontal deformation rates given by GPS measurements are also at a lower level in this area;(3)The fault deformation rates (vertical and horizontal)at fixed observation sites are equal to the regional background value;(4)Based on the state of large-scale deformation field and the level of fault deformation anomalies mentioned above,there will be no stronger earthquake in the area in future 1-3 years.

关 键 词：形变场 强震危险性 北京地区 GPS 全球定位系统 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.725[天文地球—地震学] P315.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]