过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变化序列重建及初步分析  

RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS ON THE SERIES OF WINTER-HALF-YEAR TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 2 000 YEARS IN EASTERN CHINA

作　　者：葛全胜[1] 郑景云[1] 满志敏[2] 方修琦[3] 张丕远[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]复旦大学中国历史地理研究所,上海200433 [3]北京师范大学资源与环境科学系,北京100875

出　　处：《地学前缘》2002年第1期169-181,共13页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程资助项目(KZCX2 314 ) ;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新前沿领域资助项目(CXIOG A0 0 0 2 )

摘　　要：首先简要介绍了中国历史文献中的冷暖记载及其气候信息提取方法 ,并利用现代仪器观测资料对中国东部地区 (10 5°E以东 ,2 5°～ 40°N)气候变化一致性、站点的空间代表性及贡献率进行了分析。在此基础上 ,集成利用物候学与统计学方法 ,根据近年收集、整理的历史文献冷暖记载及其过去有关研究结果 ,对中国东部地区过去 2 0 0 0a冬半年的温度状况进行了定量推断 ,建立了中国东部地区过去 2 0 0 0a分辨率为 10～ 30a的冬半年温度距平变化序列 ,分析了中国东部过去 2 0 0 0a的冷暖变化特征 ,并将其与自然证据进行了对比。主要结论是 :自公元初起 ,中国东部的冬半年温度在波动中下降 ,至 490’s前后下降到最低点 ,降温率达 0 17℃ / 10 0a ,最冷时期的 30年平均值较 195 1—1980年均值低 1℃。此后气候转暖进入温暖期 ,在以温暖气候为主的 5 70’s— 1310’s中 ,温度在波动中略呈上升趋势 ,其间暖峰时期 30a平均温度值较 195 1— 1980年高 0 3～ 0 6℃ ,最高达 0 9℃ ,暖峰之间冷谷的 30a平均温度值较 195 1— 1980年低 0 5～ 0 7℃。 1310’s之后气候又迅速转冷 ,温度再次迅速下降 ,并保持在一个较低的水平上波动 ,其间 4个冷谷的 30a温度平均值较 195 1— 1980年低 0 6～ 0 9℃ ,最低达 1 1℃ ;The quantitative series of the winter-half-year temperature in eastern China over the past 2000 years in 10～30 year resolution is reconstructed by phenomena records and the other proxy data with cold/warm description extracted from Chinese historical documents, some cold/warm time series in China published in last couple of decades, and the instrumental data from 1951—1999. The variability and amplitudes of cold-warm changes in eastern China during the past 2 000 years are discussed as well. In summary, the winter-half-year temperature changes over the past 2000 years in eastern China can be outlined as follows:(1) From the beginning of Christian era, the climate tended to decrease in fluctuation with the cooling rate of 0.17℃/100a, and around 490s the temperature decreased to the lowest of the first epoch, about 1.0℃ lower than that of 1951—1980.(2) Then the temperature rose rapidly and entered the warm epoch of 570s—1310s. In this epoch,the climates were dominantly warm, and the temperature rose slowly in fluctuation. The 30-year mean temperatures of two warm peaks were generally 0.3～0.6℃ higher than that of 1951—1980, and once reached the highest of over 0.9℃. For the cold troughs between the two warm peaks, the 30-year mean temperatures were generally 0.5～0.7℃ lower than that of 1951—1980.(3) After 1310s, the temperature descended rapidly. The 30-year mean temperatures of the four cold troughs were generally 0.6～0.9℃ lower than that of 1951—1980 with the minimal of 1.1℃. For the relative warm peaks between the cold troughs, the 30-year mean temperatures were slightly higher than that of 1951—1980.(4) Since then, the temperature has been rising rapidly and entered the warm epoch of the 20th Century. For the most recent two decades, the temperature increases dramatically. The mean temperature from 1981 to 1999 is 0.5℃ higher than that from 1951 to 1980.(5) The winter-half-year temperature changes over the past 2000 years indicate that the transition between cold period and

关 键 词：中国东部 冬半年温度 古气候 气候信息 冷暖记载 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]