1957-2012年青藏高原五道梁盆地气候变化趋势分析  

Analysis of climate changes in the Wudaoliang,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1957-2012

作　　者：刘国华[1] 王一博[1,2] 高泽永[1] 文晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源与环境学院,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第3期410-416,共7页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271092);中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLFSE201109)

摘　　要：基于青藏高原五道梁气象站1957-2012年56年的温度、降水和湿度数据,利用M-K检验、Morlet小波分析进行非参数检验,以诊断其变化趋势,同时利用R/S分析法预测未来一段时间内气候变化趋势.结果表明:过去的56年间,青藏高原五道梁地区气温、降水变化呈上升趋势,湿度变化呈下降趋势,其趋势自20世纪80年代初以来逐渐增强.在长时间序列中,温度呈现30年/18～19年/10年/5年变化周期,降水呈现20～30年/14年/8～9年变化周期,湿度呈现30年/5年/15年变化周期.未来气候变化预测显示,气温将延续过去的变化有持续升高趋势,降水变化与过去一致呈上升趋势,但趋势将有所减缓,未来湿度变化呈下降趋势.With the Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet nonparametric test, the time-series of annual mean air temperature, precipitation and relative humidity （1957-2012） at Wudaoliang Station in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were analyzed in order to find their changing tendencies. Meanwhile, based on R/S method, the changing tendencies in the coming period were also forecasted for the Wudaoliang area and it was found that tem-perature and precipitation had significantly increased in the past 56 a with a cycle of 30 a/18～19 a/10 a/5 a and 20～30 a/14 a/8～9 a; On the other hand, the relative humidity had decreased significantly with a cycle of 30 a/5 a/15 a. The forecast indicated that temperature and precipitation would increase but relative humidity would not decrease as had happened in the past. On the contrary, it may increase or become flat at a certain period of time after 2012 in Wudaoliang.

关 键 词：气候变化 非参数检验 R S分析 五道梁 青藏高原 

分 类 号：P951[天文地球—自然地理学]