云南省HIV/AIDS预测  

The HIV/AIDS projection in Yunnan

作　　者：袁建华[1] 许屹[1] 姜涛[1] Geoegelonita 李建华[3] 张家鹏[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息控制研究所,100037 [2]联合国儿童基金会 [3]云南省药物依赖防治研究所 [4]云南省卫生防疫站

出　　处：《中国性病艾滋病防治》2002年第2期78-81,共4页Chinese Journal of Std & Aids Prevention and Control

基　　金：该项研究得到了联合国儿童基金资助

摘　　要：目的 预测未来10年云南省HIV/AIDS流行趋势。方法 定性与定量相结合,数学模型、现患率趋势估计及经验分布函数相结合的方法。结果 用9种方案描述云南省未来10年HIV/AIDS流行趋势,指标包括未来各年HIV感染人数、新增人数和累计人数,及AIDS现患人数、新增人数和累计人数。我们估计目前云南省HIV感染人数为5.2～5.4万,到2005年时增加到8～20万,到2010年时再增加到11～62万。目前AIDS患者累计人数为 5 000～8 000人,到 2010年将增加到 6～12万。结论 未来 10年云南省 HIV仍以在吸毒人群中流行为主,但通过其它途径感染HIV的人数占总HIV感染人数的比例也会不断增加,同时艾滋病将会造成未来孤儿数不断增加,估计2000年云南省艾滋病孤儿为2千人,到2010年为2万人。本文还讨论了非安全注射问题,这是一个可能导致艾滋病流行的不可忽视的潜在因素。Objective Projection of Yunnan's HIV/AIDS in future ten years.Methods The method of integration from qualitative to quantitative analysis is used. The combination of mathematical models, prevalence estimation and experiential HIV incubation functions are also used.Results Nine scenarios are used to describe the tendency of HIV/AIDS infection in Yunnan.The indexes projected include current HIV numbers, new HIV numbers, cumulative HIV numbers, current AIDS numbers, new AIDS numbers and cumulative AIDS numbers. We estimate the HIV prevalence number is 52,000 to 54,000 persons in 2000 in Yunnan.The number will increase to 80,000 to 200,000 persons in 2005 and 110,000 to 620,000 persons in 2010.The estimated number of AIDS cases was 5,000 to 8,000 persons in 2000. We project that the cumulative number of AIDS cases will be 60,000 to 120,000 persons in 2010.Conclusion Drug users' group is continuing to be the predominant group for HIV infection in next 10 years in Yunnan.But percentage of HIV positives infected in non - drug - users' groups will increase steadily. The HIV spread will make the increase of orphans. We estimate the current number of orphans whose father or mother died of AIDS is 2,000 in 2000. And the number will increase to 20,000 in 2010. At last we also discuss unsafe injections which will be the potential factors of HIV spread in the general population.

关 键 词：云南省 艾滋病 预测 模型 艾滋病孤儿 非安全注射 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]