气象要素对肠道传染病的影响及预报  

A Relationship between Meteorological Elements and Intestinal Infection and Its Forecast

作　　者：张晓云[1] 刘彬贤[1] 刘艳[1] 张之伦[2] 谢咏[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象科学研究所,300074 [2]天津市卫生防病中心

出　　处：《气象》2002年第5期53-55,共3页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：天津市气象局资助项目

摘　　要：根据 1 980～ 1 988年天津市肠道传染病发病资料与气象台同步观测资料 ,分析发病资料和气象资料的变化规律 ,并与前期的气象要素进行相关分析 ,揭示出由于气象条件的变化导致肠道传染病发病的周期性规律。采用逐步回归方法建立天津市肠道传染病发病率月预报方程 。Based on the synchronization data of Tianjin intestinal infection and the meteorological observation,the periodic law of outbreak of intestinal infection caused by meteorological factors was analyzed and the regression forecast equations of monthly intestinal infection were given.The results show that the forecasting effect is satisfying.

关 键 词：发病指数 气象要素 肠道传染病 气象资料 逐步回归方法 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学] R12[医药卫生—临床医学]